Forecast track
The official forecast track, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 15 (). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.
STORM MODEWeather tracking workspace
Tropical Storm Pena
Current advisory context · Tropical Storm 40 mph (35 kt) · 1004 hPa · W at 14 mph (12 kt)
CPHC Advisory 15 ·
Latest advisory
Published advisory track · Advisory 15
Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.
ⓘ About this map
The cone describes center uncertainty; impacts can extend outside it.
Basemap
MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic
Recorded weather · gaps are marked. Coverage begins with recording activation.
Live sources keep independent clocks.
Replay coverage and interpretation
Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.
Current GLM density, velocity and specialist layers are hidden during replay. Snow uses retained footprint metadata with unverified pixel time. Forecast uses one pinned issuance/run and exact valid time.
No observed replay frame displayed.
Open the complete replay reader (works without scripting or WebGL)Choose Forecast for a pinned issuance and valid time.
Analysis
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Tropical
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Analysis
Area, source times and interpretation
Current cached context, independently dated. Regional products keep their published footprint; they are not clipped or attributed to one storm. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.
Soundings: what weather balloons measured
A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.
The levels this sounding was drawn from (60)
| Pressure | Height | Temperature | Dew point | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1016 mb | 15 m | 19.2 | 12.2 | calm |
| 1005 mb | 109 m | 22.2 | 12.2 | — |
| 1000 mb | 152 m | 21.8 | 10.8 | 240° 8 kt |
| 988 mb | 257 m | 21.0 | 9.0 | — |
| 948 mb | 610 m | 17.8 | 8.3 | 280° 8 kt |
| 925 mb | 822 m | 15.8 | 7.8 | 310° 7 kt |
| 909 mb | 970 m | 14.8 | 4.8 | — |
| 883 mb | 1219 m | 16.6 | -9.3 | 320° 16 kt |
| 855 mb | 1489 m | 16.2 | -16.8 | — |
| 850 mb | 1539 m | 16.2 | -13.8 | 310° 13 kt |
| 821 mb | 1829 m | 14.2 | -8.9 | 320° 11 kt |
| 801 mb | 2040 m | 13.0 | -20.0 | — |
| 782 mb | 2241 m | 12.6 | -25.4 | — |
| 764 mb | 2438 m | 11.6 | -24.1 | 340° 16 kt |
| 736 mb | 2743 m | 9.7 | -20.5 | 335° 12 kt |
| 710 mb | 3048 m | 8.1 | -17.0 | 320° 18 kt |
| 700 mb | 3160 m | 7.6 | -16.4 | 320° 18 kt |
| 684 mb | 3353 m | 6.2 | -19.6 | 325° 20 kt |
| 659 mb | 3658 m | 3.7 | -21.2 | 315° 16 kt |
| 639 mb | 3903 m | 1.4 | -20.6 | — |
| 621 mb | 4132 m | -0.1 | -24.1 | — |
| 611 mb | 4267 m | -1.1 | -25.7 | 295° 17 kt |
| 588 mb | 4572 m | -3.4 | -29.4 | 300° 17 kt |
| 565 mb | 4877 m | -5.0 | -32.7 | 320° 18 kt |
| 544 mb | 5182 m | -6.8 | -33.6 | 310° 17 kt |
| 524 mb | 5469 m | -9.1 | -35.1 | — |
| 513 mb | 5633 m | -10.5 | -32.5 | — |
| 503 mb | 5791 m | -11.5 | -34.3 | 305° 20 kt |
| 500 mb | 5830 m | -11.7 | -34.7 | 305° 20 kt |
| 489 mb | 5999 m | -12.7 | -38.7 | — |
| 465 mb | 6379 m | -15.3 | -40.3 | — |
| 455 mb | 6542 m | -16.7 | -42.7 | — |
| 445 mb | 6708 m | -18.1 | -43.1 | — |
| 423 mb | 7082 m | -21.3 | -44.3 | — |
| 410 mb | 7315 m | -23.3 | -40.9 | 280° 33 kt |
| 400 mb | 7490 m | -24.7 | -41.7 | 280° 33 kt |
| 388 mb | 7711 m | -26.3 | -42.3 | — |
| 377 mb | 7925 m | -27.9 | -43.6 | 280° 34 kt |
| 361 mb | 8230 m | -30.3 | -37.3 | — |
| 346 mb | 8534 m | -32.8 | -39.1 | 280° 52 kt |
| 331 mb | 8839 m | -35.5 | -39.0 | 280° 53 kt |
| 317 mb | 9144 m | -37.7 | -45.2 | 280° 53 kt |
| 304 mb | 9429 m | -39.7 | -52.7 | — |
| 300 mb | 9520 m | -40.5 | -52.5 | 280° 49 kt |
| 290 mb | 9754 m | -42.1 | -53.5 | 280° 49 kt |
| 267 mb | 10310 m | -43.7 | -58.7 | — |
| 253 mb | 10668 m | -46.1 | -61.1 | 280° 73 kt |
| 250 mb | 10750 m | -46.7 | -61.7 | 280° 69 kt |
| 231 mb | 11278 m | -50.0 | -62.6 | 275° 76 kt |
| 217 mb | 11674 m | -51.6 | -63.2 | 275° 81 kt |
| 201 mb | 12168 m | -54.1 | -66.1 | — |
| 200 mb | 12200 m | -54.3 | -66.3 | 285° 79 kt |
| 185 mb | 12697 m | -56.7 | -68.7 | — |
| 173 mb | 13106 m | -57.8 | -69.5 | 285° 75 kt |
| 163 mb | 13495 m | -60.3 | -71.3 | — |
| 150 mb | 14010 m | -62.5 | -73.5 | 280° 64 kt |
| 135 mb | 14630 m | -66.8 | -76.2 | 270° 65 kt |
| 125 mb | 15116 m | -67.7 | -77.7 | — |
| 111 mb | 15824 m | -70.9 | -79.9 | — |
| 100 mb | 16440 m | -71.9 | -81.9 | 290° 61 kt |
Every station with a sounding (76)
- Aberdeen, SD (ABR)
- ADN
- Albany, NY (ALB)
- Albuquerque, NM (ABQ)
- Amarillo, TX (AMA)
- Birmingham, AL (BMX)
- Bismarck, ND (BIS)
- Blacksburg, VA (RNK)
- Boise, ID (BOI)
- Brownsville, TX (BRO)
- Buffalo, NY (BUF)
- Cape Canaveral, FL (XMR)
- Caribou, ME (CAR)
- Chanhassen, MN (MPX)
- Charleston, SC (CHS)
- Chihuahua, Mexico (76225)
- Corpus Christi, TX (CRP)
- Davenport, IA (DVN)
- Del Rio, TX (DRT)
- Dodge City, KS (DDC)
- Elko, NV (LKN)
- Flagstaff, AZ (FGZ)
- Fort Worth, TX (FWD)
- Gaylord, MI (APX)
- Glasgow, MT (GGW)
- Grand Junction, CO (GJT)
- Gray, ME (GYX)
- GRB
- Great Falls, MT (TFX)
- Greensboro, NC (GSO)
- International Falls, MN (INL)
- Jackson, MS (JAN)
- Jacksonville, FL (JAX)
- Key West, FL (KEY)
- La Paz, Mexico (76405)
- Lake Charles, LA (LCH)
- Lamont, OK (LMN)
- Las Vegas, NV (VEF)
- Lincoln, IL (ILX)
- Little Rock, AR (LZK)
- Maniwaki, Quebec (WMW)
- Mazatlán, Mexico (76458)
- Medford, OR (MFR)
- Miami, FL (MFL)
- Midland, TX (MAF)
- Nashville, TN (BNA)
- Newport, NC (MHX)
- Norman, OK (OUN)
- North Platte, NE (LBF)
- Oakland, CA (OAK)
- OYU
- Peachtree City, GA (FFC)
- Pickle Lake, Ontario (WPL)
- Pittsburgh, PA (PIT)
- Quillayute, WA (UIL)
- Rapid City, SD (UNR)
- Reno, NV (REV)
- Riverton, WY (RIW)
- Salem, OR (SLE)
- Salt Lake City, UT (SLC)
- San Diego, CA (NKX)
- Santa Teresa, NM (EPZ)
- Shreveport, LA (SHV)
- Slidell, LA (LIX)
- Spokane, WA (OTX)
- Springfield, MO (SGF)
- Sterling, VA (IAD)
- Tampa Bay, FL (TBW)
- Topeka, KS (TOP)
- Upton, NY (OKX)
- Valley, NE (OAX)
- Vandenberg, CA (VBG)
- White Lake, MI (DTX)
- Wilmington, OH (ILN)
- Yarmouth, Nova Scotia (YQI)
- Zacatecas, Mexico (76526)
SPC observed soundings checked · Data: NOAA/SPC
Impacts
No supported U.S. monitoring areaOfficial forecast table
Forecast points
CPHC Advisory 15 · advisory · forecast cycle . Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.
| Valid time / lead | Position | Classification | Sustained wind |
|---|---|---|---|
+0 h from forecast cycle | 11.7°N, 163.3°W | Tropical storm | 40 mph (35 kt) |
+3 h from forecast cycle | 11.7°N, 163.9°W | Tropical storm | 40 mph (35 kt) |
+12 h from forecast cycle | 11.5°N, 165.6°W | Tropical storm | 40 mph (35 kt) |
+24 h from forecast cycle | 11.2°N, 167.7°W | Tropical storm | 40 mph (35 kt) |
+36 h from forecast cycle | 11.1°N, 170.2°W | Tropical storm | 40 mph (35 kt) |
+48 h from forecast cycle | 11.3°N, 173.3°W | Tropical storm | 40 mph (35 kt) |
+60 h from forecast cycle | 11.8°N, 176.3°W | Tropical storm | 40 mph (35 kt) |
+72 h from forecast cycle | 12.3°N, 179.4°W | Tropical storm | 40 mph (35 kt) |
+96 h from forecast cycle | 13.1°N, 175.2°E | Tropical storm | 40 mph (35 kt) |
+120 h from forecast cycle | 13.5°N, 171.1°E | Tropical storm | 40 mph (35 kt) |
Advisory history and records
Advisory history
Return to latest advisoryEach entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.
Monitoring geography
- Area
- None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 15
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: crosses no U.S. state - Hazards
- —
- Window
- In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
- Made by
- CPHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area
The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.
All published products and source descriptions
Wind speed probabilities
| Place | 34 kt | 50 kt | 64 kt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10n 170w | 9% | — | — |
| 10n 175w | 4% | — | — |
NHC’s chance of sustained wind of at least each speed at each place it lists, through ; the places with the highest chance of 34 kt first. Issued . Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s table.
NHC’s coastal watches and warnings
NHC has no coastal watch or warning in effect for this storm.
In NHC’s words, Advisory 15, issued . The areas NHC names, in the United States and abroad; for a place outside the United States its national service is the warning authority. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s advisory.
Intensity forecast
The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 15 (). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.
Satellite
The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. GOES-West at 27° from the storm's meridian.
Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.
Model guidance
The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 15 (). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.
Radar
NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.
Drawn live: if the radar fails, nothing older is shown in its place.
My places
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Alerts in this area
Area briefPeek viewCheck local warning authorities.