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Tropical Storm Pena

Tropical Storm 46 mph (40 kt) · 1002 hPa · W at 12 mph (10 kt)

CPHC Advisory 9 · 21:00Z

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CPHC forecast for Tropical Storm Pena, Advisory 9; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Advisory 9

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The cone describes center uncertainty; impacts can extend outside it.

Basemap

MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

Recorded weather · gaps are marked. Coverage begins with recording activation.

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Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

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Analysis

Area, source times and interpretation

Current cached context, independently dated. Regional products keep their published footprint; they are not clipped or attributed to one storm. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.

Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Yarmouth, Nova Scotia (YQI), 12Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Yarmouth, Nova Scotia (YQI), for 12:00Z (9 h 18 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (49)

Yarmouth, Nova Scotia (YQI): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
995 mb	9 m	10.2	10.0	215° 9 kt
980 mb	142 m	9.6	9.6	—
962 mb	305 m	8.7	8.7	215° 21 kt
929 mb	610 m	7.0	7.0	215° 23 kt
925 mb	644 m	6.8	6.8	220° 25 kt
915 mb	734 m	7.6	5.4	—
895 mb	914 m	6.5	5.0	210° 30 kt
862 mb	1219 m	4.7	4.2	215° 28 kt
850 mb	1338 m	4.0	3.9	205° 27 kt
801 mb	1820 m	2.0	-1.4	—
771 mb	2134 m	3.8	-16.2	185° 27 kt
748 mb	2376 m	2.0	-11.0	—
715 mb	2743 m	0.6	-14.4	180° 38 kt
700 mb	2909 m	0.0	-16.0	180° 35 kt
675 mb	3199 m	-1.7	-17.7	—
662 mb	3353 m	-2.4	-25.4	170° 43 kt
640 mb	3620 m	-3.7	-38.7	—
589 mb	4267 m	-7.9	-38.2	175° 46 kt
544 mb	4877 m	-12.0	-40.7	185° 46 kt
524 mb	5167 m	-13.9	-41.9	—
500 mb	5520 m	-16.9	-40.9	190° 61 kt
482 mb	5791 m	-19.2	-41.9	190° 62 kt
462 mb	6096 m	-21.8	-43.0	185° 61 kt
400 mb	7150 m	-30.7	-46.7	185° 56 kt
374 mb	7620 m	-35.1	-48.4	180° 56 kt
363 mb	7829 m	-37.1	-49.1	—
351 mb	8060 m	-37.3	-62.3	—
300 mb	9130 m	-42.5	-66.5	180° 56 kt
288 mb	9407 m	-42.7	-67.7	—
270 mb	9843 m	-45.9	-69.9	185° 57 kt
259 mb	10122 m	-44.7	-72.7	—
250 mb	10360 m	-45.7	-73.7	195° 61 kt
239 mb	10668 m	-46.3	-74.7	200° 61 kt
221 mb	11174 m	-47.3	-76.3	—
200 mb	11830 m	-48.9	-77.9	205° 40 kt
181 mb	12497 m	-50.5	-80.4	210° 38 kt
169 mb	12930 m	-51.7	-80.7	—
150 mb	13700 m	-54.1	-82.1	220° 48 kt
118 mb	15240 m	-61.1	-84.7	225° 28 kt
102 mb	16119 m	-64.3	-85.3	220° 42 kt
100 mb	16240 m	-64.3	-85.3	225° 46 kt
89 mb	16945 m	-60.5	-86.5	—
75 mb	17983 m	-63.8	-87.8	225° 23 kt
65 mb	18898 m	-63.1	-88.5	260° 18 kt
51 mb	20422 m	-66.5	-89.5	275° 17 kt
39 mb	21946 m	-68.1	-91.1	265° 20 kt
26 mb	24384 m	-66.7	-91.4	270° 33 kt
16 mb	27432 m	-59.6	-88.9	265° 52 kt
7 mb	33204 m	-42.7	-81.7	—

Every station with a sounding (75)

SPC observed soundings checked 21:15Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Impacts

No supported U.S. monitoring area

Coastal alertsNo coastal alerts issued in this advisory Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Warnings in monitored areaNWS coverage unavailable here; not a global all-clear

Official forecast table

Forecast points

CPHC Advisory 9 · advisory 21:00Z · forecast cycle 18:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
18:00Z +0 h from forecast cycle	11.6°N, 156.7°W	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)
21:00Z +3 h from forecast cycle	11.6°N, 157.2°W	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)
9 Nov 06:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	11.6°N, 158.6°W	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)
9 Nov 18:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	11.5°N, 160.6°W	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)
10 Nov 06:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	11.4°N, 162.6°W	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)
10 Nov 18:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	11.4°N, 164.6°W	Tropical storm	52 mph (45 kt)
11 Nov 06:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	11.3°N, 166.8°W	Tropical storm	52 mph (45 kt)
11 Nov 18:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	11.3°N, 169.5°W	Tropical storm	58 mph (50 kt)
12 Nov 18:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	12.1°N, 175.8°W	Tropical storm	52 mph (45 kt)
13 Nov 18:00Z +120 h from forecast cycle	14.2°N, 178.4°E	Tropical storm	52 mph (45 kt)

Advisory history and records

Advisory history

Return to latest advisory

Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
CPHC Advisory 9 · 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 23b015f2 · Selected
CPHC Unnumbered state · 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7081a2c1
CPHC Advisory 8 · 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9cccd530
CPHC Unnumbered state · 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 72fa3e5c
CPHC Advisory 7 · 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9d4bd068
CPHC Unnumbered state · 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 34f11ed6
CPHC Advisory 6 · 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7b6af387
CPHC Unnumbered state · 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot feb3dd6a
CPHC Advisory 5 · 7 Nov 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 056a0eb5
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot e296178e
CPHC Advisory 4 · 7 Nov 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 8e23913e
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9ce314ee
CPHC Advisory 3 · 7 Nov 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot f167fe92
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot b161830f
CPHC Advisory 2 · 7 Nov 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 6eb780c9
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot c16d8efc
CPHC Advisory 1 · 6 Nov 21:00Z	first	Snapshot 5be09be7

Monitoring geography

Area: None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 9
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: crosses no U.S. state
Hazards: —
Window: In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
Made by: CPHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 9 (21:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Wind speed probabilities

Chance of sustained wind of at least 34, 50 and 64 knots, by place
Place	34 kt	50 kt	64 kt
10n 170w	7%	—	—
10n 165w	4%	—	—
10n 175w	3%	—	—

NHC’s chance of sustained wind of at least each speed at each place it lists, through 13 Nov 18:00Z; the places with the highest chance of 34 kt first. Issued 21:00Z. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s table.

NHC’s coastal watches and warnings

NHC has no coastal watch or warning in effect for this storm.

In NHC’s words, Advisory 9, issued 21:00Z. The areas NHC names, in the United States and abroad; for a place outside the United States its national service is the warning authority. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s advisory.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 9 (21:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. GOES-West at 20° from the storm's meridian.

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Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Tropical Storm Pena, CPHC Advisory 9

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 9 (21:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

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Details

CPHC Advisory 9 · 21:00Z

Center position: 11.6°N, 157.2°W
Minimum pressure: 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 46 mph (40 kt)
Movement: W at 12 mph (10 kt)
Since the advisory compared: Wind 0 kt · pressure 0 hPa
Compared with Best track · 12:00Z

Read official advisory (CPHC) ↗Official discussion ↗

Forecast cycle 18:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

Map layers

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

Public event region Aggregation interval Show density on map

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Coverage and interpretation

Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.

Cached lightning source details and text readings

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Advisory comparison

Compare with

Show previous forecast as a dashed line

Solid: Advisory 9 · 21:00Z
Dashed: Best track · 12:00Z

Compare positions and intensity

Solid: CPHC Advisory 9 · 21:00Z
Dashed: CPHC Best track · 12:00Z. Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.

Current-state revision (two separate official issuances)
Field	Selected issuance	Comparison issuance	Change
Maximum sustained wind	46 mph (40 kt)	46 mph (40 kt)	0 kt
Minimum pressure	1002 hPa	1002 hPa	0 hPa
Center position	11.6°N, 157.2°W	11.6°N, 155.6°W	Different observation times; not a forecast shift

Official forecast revisions at matching valid times
Valid time	Selected position / wind	Previous position / wind	Wind revision
18:00Z	11.6°N, 156.7°W 46 mph (40 kt)	11.5°N, 156.3°W 40 mph (35 kt)	+5 kt
9 Nov 06:00Z	11.6°N, 158.6°W 46 mph (40 kt)	11.5°N, 158.1°W 40 mph (35 kt)	+5 kt
9 Nov 18:00Z	11.5°N, 160.6°W 46 mph (40 kt)	11.4°N, 160.3°W 46 mph (40 kt)	0 kt
10 Nov 06:00Z	11.4°N, 162.6°W 46 mph (40 kt)	11.3°N, 162.5°W 52 mph (45 kt)	-5 kt
10 Nov 18:00Z	11.4°N, 164.6°W 52 mph (45 kt)	11.1°N, 164.4°W 52 mph (45 kt)	0 kt
11 Nov 06:00Z	11.3°N, 166.8°W 52 mph (45 kt)	10.9°N, 166.4°W 58 mph (50 kt)	-5 kt

None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 9. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.

Data coverage

NHC/CPHC track, coastal alerts, probabilities and wind timing retain separate coverage and issuance.

Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.

No supported U.S. NWS monitoring area for this advisory. This does not mean no warnings worldwide.

Sources

CPHC advisory, as published checked 21:17Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

Outside NWS coverageTropical Storm Pena

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21:18Z