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Tropical Storm Pena

Tropical Storm 46 mph (40 kt) · 1002 hPa · W at 8 mph (7 kt)

CPHC Best track · 06:00Z

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CPHC forecast for Tropical Storm Pena, Best track; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Best track

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ⓘ About this map

The cone describes center uncertainty; impacts can extend outside it.

Basemap

MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

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Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

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Analysis

Area, source times and interpretation

Current cached context, independently dated. Regional products keep their published footprint; they are not clipped or attributed to one storm. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.

Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Chanhassen, MN (MPX), 00Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Chanhassen, MN (MPX), for 00:00Z (8 h 10 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (57)

Chanhassen, MN (MPX): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
983 mb	287 m	11.6	4.6	315° 2 kt
970 mb	398 m	10.8	3.8	—
946 mb	610 m	8.9	2.9	315° 13 kt
925 mb	792 m	7.2	2.2	305° 12 kt
911 mb	914 m	6.3	1.3	305° 13 kt
888 mb	1127 m	6.4	-2.6	—
870 mb	1295 m	6.0	-5.0	—
850 mb	1486 m	6.6	-6.4	305° 22 kt
815 mb	1829 m	5.7	-12.7	305° 20 kt
805 mb	1931 m	5.4	-14.6	—
790 mb	2085 m	7.2	-28.8	—
757 mb	2438 m	5.5	-23.8	335° 35 kt
729 mb	2743 m	3.9	-17.0	330° 34 kt
702 mb	3048 m	2.3	-10.3	330° 37 kt
700 mb	3070 m	2.2	-9.8	330° 38 kt
678 mb	3327 m	1.0	-10.0	—
650 mb	3658 m	-0.8	-13.9	320° 41 kt
640 mb	3788 m	-1.5	-15.5	—
621 mb	4026 m	-3.3	-15.3	—
602 mb	4267 m	-4.7	-17.7	325° 39 kt
579 mb	4572 m	-7.1	-18.0	320° 41 kt
558 mb	4862 m	-9.3	-19.3	—
535 mb	5182 m	-11.9	-19.9	330° 44 kt
523 mb	5359 m	-12.9	-20.9	—
512 mb	5520 m	-13.7	-20.7	—
500 mb	5700 m	-14.7	-21.7	325° 54 kt
489 mb	5868 m	-15.7	-23.7	—
478 mb	6039 m	-17.1	-24.1	—
467 mb	6214 m	-18.1	-26.1	—
455 mb	6401 m	-19.7	-27.2	325° 56 kt
437 mb	6706 m	-22.3	-29.3	330° 55 kt
422 mb	6962 m	-24.3	-31.3	—
404 mb	7278 m	-26.7	-33.7	—
400 mb	7350 m	-27.3	-34.3	320° 52 kt
385 mb	7620 m	-29.7	-35.8	320° 52 kt
367 mb	7964 m	-32.7	-37.7	—
356 mb	8177 m	-34.3	-40.3	—
328 mb	8745 m	-39.1	-45.1	—
310 mb	9129 m	-42.3	-47.1	—
300 mb	9350 m	-44.1	-49.0	315° 58 kt
282 mb	9754 m	-47.7	-51.8	315° 61 kt
269 mb	10058 m	-50.4	-54.0	320° 63 kt
259 mb	10313 m	-52.5	-56.3	—
250 mb	10540 m	-54.5	-58.1	325° 64 kt
238 mb	10855 m	-57.1	-60.8	—
228 mb	11126 m	-58.7	-63.0	—
205 mb	11796 m	-60.7	-65.7	—
200 mb	11950 m	-61.7	-66.7	310° 48 kt
187 mb	12364 m	-62.1	-68.1	—
174 mb	12802 m	-62.7	-70.5	300° 64 kt
163 mb	13209 m	-61.7	-70.7	—
150 mb	13716 m	-62.9	-72.9	310° 36 kt
150 mb	13720 m	-62.9	-72.9	295° 38 kt
136 mb	14326 m	-59.8	-72.5	295° 55 kt
118 mb	15240 m	-60.6	-76.0	300° 34 kt
107 mb	15850 m	-62.9	-79.4	305° 41 kt
100 mb	16240 m	-64.5	-81.5	310° 31 kt

Every station with a sounding (75)

SPC observed soundings checked 08:00Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Impacts

No supported U.S. monitoring area

Coastal alertsNo coastal alerts issued in this advisory Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Warnings in monitored areaNWS coverage unavailable here; not a global all-clear

Official forecast table

Forecast points

CPHC Best track · advisory 06:00Z · forecast cycle 00:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
00:00Z +0 h from forecast cycle	11.4°N, 157.2°W	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)
03:00Z +3 h from forecast cycle	11.4°N, 157.6°W	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)
12:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	11.4°N, 159.2°W	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)
10 Nov 00:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	11.3°N, 161.5°W	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)
10 Nov 12:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	11.3°N, 163.5°W	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)
11 Nov 00:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	11.2°N, 165.6°W	Tropical storm	52 mph (45 kt)
11 Nov 12:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	11.1°N, 168.0°W	Tropical storm	52 mph (45 kt)
12 Nov 00:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	11.3°N, 170.9°W	Tropical storm	52 mph (45 kt)
13 Nov 00:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	12.6°N, 177.1°W	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)
14 Nov 00:00Z +120 h from forecast cycle	14.4°N, 177.2°E	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)

Advisory history and records

Advisory history

Return to latest advisory

The issuance history could not be read. This is not an absence of previous advisories. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
CPHC Unnumbered state · 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 5f4e816f · Selected
CPHC Advisory 10 · 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0bcae4ab
CPHC Unnumbered state · 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d9b6706d
CPHC Advisory 9 · 8 Nov 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 23b015f2
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7081a2c1
CPHC Advisory 8 · 8 Nov 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9cccd530
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 72fa3e5c
CPHC Advisory 7 · 8 Nov 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9d4bd068
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 34f11ed6
CPHC Advisory 6 · 8 Nov 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7b6af387
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot feb3dd6a
CPHC Advisory 5 · 7 Nov 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 056a0eb5
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot e296178e
CPHC Advisory 4 · 7 Nov 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 8e23913e
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9ce314ee
CPHC Advisory 3 · 7 Nov 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot f167fe92
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot b161830f
CPHC Advisory 2 · 7 Nov 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 6eb780c9
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot c16d8efc
CPHC Advisory 1 · 6 Nov 21:00Z	first	Snapshot 5be09be7

Monitoring geography

Area: None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Best track
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: crosses no U.S. state
Hazards: —
Window: In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
Made by: CPHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Best track (06:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Wind speed probabilities

Chance of sustained wind of at least 34, 50 and 64 knots, by place
Place	34 kt	50 kt	64 kt
10n 170w	6%	—	—
10n 165w	5%	—	—

NHC’s chance of sustained wind of at least each speed at each place it lists, through 14 Nov 00:00Z; the places with the highest chance of 34 kt first. Issued 03:00Z. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s table.

NHC’s coastal watches and warnings

NHC has no coastal watch or warning in effect for this storm.

In NHC’s words, Best track, issued 06:00Z. The areas NHC names, in the United States and abroad; for a place outside the United States its national service is the warning authority. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s advisory.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Best track (06:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. GOES-West at 21° from the storm's meridian.

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Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Tropical Storm Pena, CPHC Best track

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Best track (06:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

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Details

CPHC Best track · 06:00Z

Center position: 11.3°N, 158.0°W
Minimum pressure: 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 46 mph (40 kt)
Movement: W at 8 mph (7 kt)
Since the advisory compared: Wind 0 kt · pressure 0 hPa
Compared with Best track · 00:00Z

Read official track data ↗Official discussion ↗

Forecast cycle 00:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

Map layers

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

Public event region Aggregation interval Show density on map

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Coverage and interpretation

Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.

Cached lightning source details and text readings

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Advisory comparison

Compare with

Show previous forecast as a dashed line

Solid: Best track · 06:00Z
Dashed: Best track · 00:00Z

Compare positions and intensity

Solid: CPHC Best track · 06:00Z
Dashed: CPHC Best track · 00:00Z. Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.

Current-state revision (two separate official issuances)
Field	Selected issuance	Comparison issuance	Change
Maximum sustained wind	46 mph (40 kt)	46 mph (40 kt)	0 kt
Minimum pressure	1002 hPa	1002 hPa	0 hPa
Center position	11.3°N, 158.0°W	11.4°N, 157.2°W	Different observation times; not a forecast shift

Forecast comparison unavailable: these records have no matching forecast valid times. No interpolation or six-hour step is assumed.

None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Best track. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.

Data coverage

NHC/CPHC track, coastal alerts, probabilities and wind timing retain separate coverage and issuance.

Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.

No supported U.S. NWS monitoring area for this advisory. This does not mean no warnings worldwide.

Sources

CPHC best track, as published down · last read 08:05Z, 4 min ago
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

Outside NWS coverageTropical Storm Pena

Check local warning authorities.

08:10Z