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Tropical Storm Pena

Tropical Storm 40 mph (35 kt) · 1004 hPa · W at 12 mph (10 kt)

CPHC Advisory 16 · 15:00Z

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CPHC forecast for Tropical Storm Pena, Advisory 16; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Advisory 16

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Basemap

MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

Recorded weather · gaps are marked. Coverage begins with recording activation.

Live sources keep independent clocks.

Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

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Analysis

Area, source times and interpretation

Current cached context, independently dated. Regional products keep their published footprint; they are not clipped or attributed to one storm. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.

Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Greensboro, NC (GSO), 12Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Greensboro, NC (GSO), for 12:00Z (4 h 22 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (46)

Greensboro, NC (GSO): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
988 mb	270 m	6.2	3.4	calm
978 mb	354 m	7.4	5.2	—
966 mb	458 m	9.3	4.2	335° 4 kt
950 mb	598 m	11.8	2.8	355° 8 kt
934 mb	740 m	14.4	1.4	—
925 mb	822 m	14.0	1.0	270° 6 kt
901 mb	1043 m	12.4	1.4	—
884 mb	1202 m	12.0	-2.0	250° 11 kt
861 mb	1423 m	11.4	-6.6	—
851 mb	1520 m	12.0	-13.5	280° 11 kt
850 mb	1530 m	12.0	-14.0	280° 11 kt
824 mb	1789 m	11.6	-19.4	—
795 mb	2088 m	10.2	-5.8	—
745 mb	2622 m	7.1	-8.3	270° 27 kt
700 mb	3134 m	4.2	-10.8	275° 26 kt
642 mb	3832 m	-0.9	-14.9	—
630 mb	3982 m	-1.7	-16.7	265° 25 kt
613 mb	4199 m	-2.8	-19.4	265° 30 kt
586 mb	4556 m	-4.7	-23.7	—
566 mb	4827 m	-6.1	-26.7	260° 32 kt
533 mb	5296 m	-8.6	-31.8	280° 38 kt
500 mb	5790 m	-12.3	-32.3	275° 38 kt
441 mb	6734 m	-20.1	-33.1	—
418 mb	7127 m	-22.6	-37.3	290° 37 kt
400 mb	7450 m	-24.7	-40.7	285° 34 kt
372 mb	7972 m	-28.9	-43.9	—
362 mb	8166 m	-30.1	-45.1	—
336 mb	8690 m	-34.7	-47.7	—
317 mb	9093 m	-37.5	-50.5	—
303 mb	9402 m	-39.4	-52.1	295° 37 kt
300 mb	9470 m	-39.9	-52.9	295° 37 kt
271 mb	10156 m	-46.0	-56.3	280° 38 kt
258 mb	10482 m	-48.4	-58.4	280° 40 kt
250 mb	10690 m	-49.9	-59.9	280° 40 kt
235 mb	11087 m	-53.1	-62.6	280° 42 kt
218 mb	11569 m	-56.9	-65.9	—
203 mb	12017 m	-58.7	-67.7	—
200 mb	12110 m	-58.7	-67.7	290° 49 kt
180 mb	12770 m	-59.9	-68.9	—
162 mb	13425 m	-61.7	-71.7	—
152 mb	13818 m	-62.7	-72.7	—
150 mb	13900 m	-62.5	-72.5	280° 83 kt
137 mb	14457 m	-64.1	-74.1	—
127 mb	14919 m	-65.5	-75.5	—
115 mb	15520 m	-66.7	-76.1	275° 72 kt
100 mb	16360 m	-68.7	-77.7	270° 54 kt

Every station with a sounding (76)

SPC observed soundings checked 16:15Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Impacts

No supported U.S. monitoring area

Coastal alertsNo coastal alerts issued in this advisory Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Warnings in monitored areaNWS coverage unavailable here; not a global all-clear

Official forecast table

Forecast points

CPHC Advisory 16 · advisory 15:00Z · forecast cycle 12:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
12:00Z +0 h from forecast cycle	11.2°N, 164.2°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
15:00Z +3 h from forecast cycle	11.1°N, 164.7°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
11 Nov 00:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	10.8°N, 166.2°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
11 Nov 12:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	10.6°N, 168.5°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
12 Nov 00:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	10.6°N, 171.3°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
12 Nov 12:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	11.0°N, 174.3°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
13 Nov 00:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	11.5°N, 177.3°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
13 Nov 12:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	11.8°N, 179.9°E	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
14 Nov 12:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	12.5°N, 174.8°E	Tropical depression	35 mph (30 kt)
15 Nov 12:00Z +120 h from forecast cycle	12.9°N, 170.8°E	Tropical depression	35 mph (30 kt)

Advisory history and records

Advisory history

Return to latest advisory

Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
CPHC Advisory 16 · 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 75219303 · Selected
CPHC Unnumbered state · 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 1b3d972c
CPHC Advisory 15 · 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d09d1ec3
CPHC Unnumbered state · 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0abb013b
CPHC Advisory 14 · 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 6ab29e69
CPHC Unnumbered state · 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0bcec4c9
CPHC Advisory 13 · 9 Nov 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot f9ae50f7
CPHC Unnumbered state · 9 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7c8b78ee
CPHC Advisory 12 · 9 Nov 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0a3a81cd
CPHC Unnumbered state · 9 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 20477de4
CPHC Advisory 11 · 9 Nov 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 1dbe26fd
CPHC Unnumbered state · 9 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 5f4e816f
CPHC Advisory 10 · 9 Nov 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0bcae4ab
CPHC Unnumbered state · 9 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d9b6706d
CPHC Advisory 9 · 8 Nov 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 23b015f2
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7081a2c1
CPHC Advisory 8 · 8 Nov 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9cccd530
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 72fa3e5c
CPHC Advisory 7 · 8 Nov 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9d4bd068
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 34f11ed6
CPHC Advisory 6 · 8 Nov 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7b6af387
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot feb3dd6a
CPHC Advisory 5 · 7 Nov 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 056a0eb5
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot e296178e
CPHC Advisory 4 · 7 Nov 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 8e23913e
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9ce314ee
CPHC Advisory 3 · 7 Nov 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot f167fe92
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot b161830f
CPHC Advisory 2 · 7 Nov 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 6eb780c9
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot c16d8efc
CPHC Advisory 1 · 6 Nov 21:00Z	first	Snapshot 5be09be7

Monitoring geography

Area: None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 16
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: crosses no U.S. state
Hazards: —
Window: In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
Made by: CPHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 16 (15:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Wind speed probabilities

Chance of sustained wind of at least 34, 50 and 64 knots, by place
Place	34 kt	50 kt	64 kt
10n 170w	20%	3%	—
10n 175w	8%	—	—
10n 165w	7%	—	—

NHC’s chance of sustained wind of at least each speed at each place it lists, through 15 Nov 12:00Z; the places with the highest chance of 34 kt first. Issued 15:00Z. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s table.

NHC’s coastal watches and warnings

NHC has no coastal watch or warning in effect for this storm.

In NHC’s words, Advisory 16, issued 15:00Z. The areas NHC names, in the United States and abroad; for a place outside the United States its national service is the warning authority. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s advisory.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 16 (15:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. GOES-West at 28° from the storm's meridian.

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Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Tropical Storm Pena, CPHC Advisory 16

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 16 (15:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

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Details

CPHC Advisory 16 · 15:00Z

Center position: 11.1°N, 164.7°W
Minimum pressure: 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 40 mph (35 kt)
Movement: W at 12 mph (10 kt)
Since the advisory compared: Wind 0 kt · pressure 0 hPa
Compared with Advisory 13 · 9 Nov 21:00Z

Read official advisory (CPHC) ↗Official discussion ↗

Forecast cycle 12:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

Map layers

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

Public event region Aggregation interval Show density on map

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Coverage and interpretation

Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.

Cached lightning source details and text readings

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Advisory comparison

Compare with

Show previous forecast as a dashed line

Solid: Advisory 16 · 15:00Z
Dashed: Advisory 13 · 9 Nov 21:00Z

Compare positions and intensity

Solid: CPHC Advisory 16 · 15:00Z
Dashed: CPHC Advisory 13 · 9 Nov 21:00Z. Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.

Current-state revision (two separate official issuances)
Field	Selected issuance	Comparison issuance	Change
Maximum sustained wind	40 mph (35 kt)	40 mph (35 kt)	0 kt
Minimum pressure	1004 hPa	1004 hPa	0 hPa
Center position	11.1°N, 164.7°W	11.5°N, 161.4°W	Different observation times; not a forecast shift

Forecast comparison unavailable: these records have no matching forecast valid times. No interpolation or six-hour step is assumed.

None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 16. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.

Data coverage

NHC/CPHC track, coastal alerts, probabilities and wind timing retain separate coverage and issuance.

Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.

No supported U.S. NWS monitoring area for this advisory. This does not mean no warnings worldwide.

Sources

CPHC advisory, as published checked 16:22Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

Outside NWS coverageTropical Storm Pena

Check local warning authorities.

16:22Z