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Tropical Storm Pena

Tropical Storm 40 mph (35 kt) · 1004 hPa · W at 14 mph (12 kt)

CPHC Advisory 15 · 09:00Z

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CPHC forecast for Tropical Storm Pena, Advisory 15; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Advisory 15

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ⓘ About this map

The cone describes center uncertainty; impacts can extend outside it.

Basemap

MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

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Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

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Analysis

Area, source times and interpretation

Current cached context, independently dated. Regional products keep their published footprint; they are not clipped or attributed to one storm. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.

Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Shreveport, LA (SHV), 00Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Shreveport, LA (SHV), for 00:00Z (9 h 31 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (61)

Shreveport, LA (SHV): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
1012 mb	79 m	18.6	12.6	calm
1000 mb	184 m	18.4	12.4	190° 5 kt
988 mb	288 m	17.8	11.8	—
951 mb	610 m	15.1	10.1	330° 4 kt
929 mb	811 m	13.4	9.1	—
925 mb	847 m	13.2	9.0	300° 6 kt
913 mb	957 m	13.2	8.3	—
890 mb	1172 m	12.6	8.8	—
874 mb	1324 m	11.8	7.1	—
860 mb	1460 m	12.6	5.6	—
850 mb	1558 m	12.4	6.4	275° 8 kt
834 mb	1717 m	12.0	4.0	—
823 mb	1829 m	11.3	4.0	270° 11 kt
793 mb	2134 m	9.4	4.0	285° 9 kt
772 mb	2360 m	8.6	2.6	—
758 mb	2512 m	7.4	2.4	—
737 mb	2743 m	6.5	2.4	275° 8 kt
710 mb	3048 m	4.5	1.3	280° 13 kt
700 mb	3164 m	4.2	0.9	275° 14 kt
683 mb	3364 m	2.8	0.2	—
659 mb	3658 m	1.7	-2.2	245° 16 kt
634 mb	3962 m	0.5	-4.7	240° 19 kt
621 mb	4131 m	-0.1	-6.1	—
611 mb	4267 m	-1.2	-6.7	225° 14 kt
588 mb	4572 m	-3.4	-9.2	235° 10 kt
573 mb	4770 m	-4.9	-8.5	—
561 mb	4936 m	-6.1	-11.1	—
544 mb	5182 m	-7.4	-11.9	220° 11 kt
530 mb	5379 m	-8.7	-12.5	—
503 mb	5791 m	-9.8	-18.4	235° 9 kt
500 mb	5830 m	-9.9	-18.9	235° 9 kt
483 mb	6096 m	-11.2	-20.4	235° 10 kt
467 mb	6354 m	-13.1	-21.1	—
447 mb	6685 m	-15.9	-23.9	—
428 mb	7010 m	-18.8	-24.9	265° 16 kt
411 mb	7315 m	-21.5	-25.9	250° 24 kt
400 mb	7510 m	-23.3	-26.8	255° 28 kt
378 mb	7925 m	-26.4	-38.3	245° 41 kt
362 mb	8230 m	-28.7	-46.7	250° 46 kt
347 mb	8534 m	-31.2	-39.2	245° 49 kt
332 mb	8839 m	-32.8	-37.4	230° 48 kt
318 mb	9144 m	-34.1	-37.0	225° 50 kt
302 mb	9504 m	-36.9	-40.0	—
300 mb	9550 m	-37.3	-40.4	225° 58 kt
279 mb	10058 m	-41.6	-45.0	225° 57 kt
266 mb	10363 m	-43.7	-47.6	230° 68 kt
255 mb	10668 m	-45.6	-52.4	230° 66 kt
250 mb	10790 m	-46.3	-54.3	240° 56 kt
232 mb	11278 m	-49.5	-59.5	250° 55 kt
221 mb	11582 m	-50.5	-61.3	255° 51 kt
211 mb	11887 m	-51.9	-63.8	255° 40 kt
200 mb	12240 m	-52.9	-64.9	260° 39 kt
183 mb	12802 m	-56.3	-68.3	255° 41 kt
166 mb	13411 m	-59.5	-70.5	255° 43 kt
156 mb	13808 m	-61.7	-72.7	—
150 mb	14050 m	-62.9	-73.9	260° 47 kt
136 mb	14630 m	-65.4	-75.5	255° 45 kt
123 mb	15240 m	-67.8	-77.5	260° 52 kt
111 mb	15850 m	-70.6	-79.6	285° 50 kt
101 mb	16459 m	-71.8	-81.8	290° 31 kt
100 mb	16490 m	-71.9	-81.9	250° 26 kt

Every station with a sounding (76)

SPC observed soundings checked 09:30Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Impacts

No supported U.S. monitoring area

Coastal alertsNo coastal alerts issued in this advisory Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Warnings in monitored areaNWS coverage unavailable here; not a global all-clear

Official forecast table

Forecast points

CPHC Advisory 15 · advisory 09:00Z · forecast cycle 06:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
06:00Z +0 h from forecast cycle	11.7°N, 163.3°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
09:00Z +3 h from forecast cycle	11.7°N, 163.9°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
18:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	11.5°N, 165.6°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
11 Nov 06:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	11.2°N, 167.7°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
11 Nov 18:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	11.1°N, 170.2°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
12 Nov 06:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	11.3°N, 173.3°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
12 Nov 18:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	11.8°N, 176.3°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
13 Nov 06:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	12.3°N, 179.4°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
14 Nov 06:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	13.1°N, 175.2°E	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
15 Nov 06:00Z +120 h from forecast cycle	13.5°N, 171.1°E	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)

Advisory history and records

Advisory history

Return to latest advisory

Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
CPHC Advisory 15 · 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d09d1ec3 · Selected
CPHC Unnumbered state · 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0abb013b
CPHC Advisory 14 · 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 6ab29e69
CPHC Unnumbered state · 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0bcec4c9
CPHC Advisory 13 · 9 Nov 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot f9ae50f7
CPHC Unnumbered state · 9 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7c8b78ee
CPHC Advisory 12 · 9 Nov 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0a3a81cd
CPHC Unnumbered state · 9 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 20477de4
CPHC Advisory 11 · 9 Nov 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 1dbe26fd
CPHC Unnumbered state · 9 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 5f4e816f
CPHC Advisory 10 · 9 Nov 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0bcae4ab
CPHC Unnumbered state · 9 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d9b6706d
CPHC Advisory 9 · 8 Nov 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 23b015f2
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7081a2c1
CPHC Advisory 8 · 8 Nov 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9cccd530
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 72fa3e5c
CPHC Advisory 7 · 8 Nov 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9d4bd068
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 34f11ed6
CPHC Advisory 6 · 8 Nov 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7b6af387
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot feb3dd6a
CPHC Advisory 5 · 7 Nov 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 056a0eb5
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot e296178e
CPHC Advisory 4 · 7 Nov 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 8e23913e
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9ce314ee
CPHC Advisory 3 · 7 Nov 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot f167fe92
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot b161830f
CPHC Advisory 2 · 7 Nov 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 6eb780c9
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot c16d8efc
CPHC Advisory 1 · 6 Nov 21:00Z	first	Snapshot 5be09be7

Monitoring geography

Area: None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 15
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: crosses no U.S. state
Hazards: —
Window: In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
Made by: CPHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 15 (09:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Wind speed probabilities

Chance of sustained wind of at least 34, 50 and 64 knots, by place
Place	34 kt	50 kt	64 kt
10n 170w	9%	—	—
10n 175w	4%	—	—

NHC’s chance of sustained wind of at least each speed at each place it lists, through 15 Nov 06:00Z; the places with the highest chance of 34 kt first. Issued 09:00Z. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s table.

NHC’s coastal watches and warnings

NHC has no coastal watch or warning in effect for this storm.

In NHC’s words, Advisory 15, issued 09:00Z. The areas NHC names, in the United States and abroad; for a place outside the United States its national service is the warning authority. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s advisory.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 15 (09:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. GOES-West at 27° from the storm's meridian.

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Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Tropical Storm Pena, CPHC Advisory 15

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 15 (09:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

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Details

CPHC Advisory 15 · 09:00Z

Center position: 11.7°N, 163.9°W
Minimum pressure: 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 40 mph (35 kt)
Movement: W at 14 mph (12 kt)
Since the advisory compared: Wind -15 kt · pressure +11 hPa
Compared with Best track · 8 Nov 00:00Z

Read official advisory (CPHC) ↗Official discussion ↗

Forecast cycle 06:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

Map layers

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

Public event region Aggregation interval Show density on map

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Coverage and interpretation

Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.

Cached lightning source details and text readings

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Advisory comparison

Compare with

Show previous forecast as a dashed line

Solid: Advisory 15 · 09:00Z
Dashed: Best track · 8 Nov 00:00Z

Compare positions and intensity

Solid: CPHC Advisory 15 · 09:00Z
Dashed: CPHC Best track · 8 Nov 00:00Z. Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.

Current-state revision (two separate official issuances)
Field	Selected issuance	Comparison issuance	Change
Maximum sustained wind	40 mph (35 kt)	58 mph (50 kt)	-15 kt
Minimum pressure	1004 hPa	993 hPa	+11 hPa
Center position	11.7°N, 163.9°W	11.4°N, 154.1°W	Different observation times; not a forecast shift

Official forecast revisions at matching valid times
Valid time	Selected position / wind	Previous position / wind	Wind revision
06:00Z	11.7°N, 163.3°W 40 mph (35 kt)	11.5°N, 162.9°W 69 mph (60 kt)	-25 kt
18:00Z	11.5°N, 165.6°W 40 mph (35 kt)	11.8°N, 165.0°W 69 mph (60 kt)	-25 kt
11 Nov 18:00Z	11.1°N, 170.2°W 40 mph (35 kt)	12.7°N, 170.5°W 75 mph (65 kt)	-30 kt
12 Nov 18:00Z	11.8°N, 176.3°W 40 mph (35 kt)	14.5°N, 177.7°W 75 mph (65 kt)	-30 kt

None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 15. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.

Data coverage

NHC/CPHC track, coastal alerts, probabilities and wind timing retain separate coverage and issuance.

Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.

No supported U.S. NWS monitoring area for this advisory. This does not mean no warnings worldwide.

Sources

CPHC advisory, as published checked 09:30Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

Outside NWS coverageTropical Storm Pena

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09:31Z