STORM MODEWeather tracking workspace

Tropical Storm Pena

Tropical Storm 40 mph (35 kt) · 1004 hPa · W at 14 mph (12 kt)

CPHC Advisory 15 · 09:00Z

Latest advisory

Scripting is off: reload for updates. Advisory selection, comparison, forecast tables and every published product remain available. Watched places stay on your device and need scripting to be read.

CPHC forecast for Tropical Storm Pena, Advisory 15; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Advisory 15

Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.

ⓘ About this map

The cone describes center uncertainty; impacts can extend outside it.

Basemap

MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

Recorded weather · gaps are marked. Coverage begins with recording activation.

Live sources keep independent clocks.

Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

Current GLM density, velocity and specialist layers are hidden during replay. Snow uses retained footprint metadata with unverified pixel time. Forecast uses one pinned issuance/run and exact valid time.

No observed replay frame displayed.

Open the complete replay reader (works without scripting or WebGL)

Choose Forecast for a pinned issuance and valid time.

Analysis

Area, source times and interpretation

Current cached context, independently dated. Regional products keep their published footprint; they are not clipped or attributed to one storm. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.

Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Rapid City, SD (UNR), 00Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Rapid City, SD (UNR), for 00:00Z (9 h 31 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (61)

Rapid City, SD (UNR): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
903 mb	1029 m	13.4	-2.6	085° 3 kt
885 mb	1197 m	11.9	-2.4	090° 6 kt
872 mb	1321 m	10.9	-2.3	105° 8 kt
860 mb	1436 m	9.8	-2.1	105° 5 kt
850 mb	1534 m	9.0	-2.0	115° 4 kt
793 mb	2104 m	5.3	-3.9	195° 13 kt
774 mb	2303 m	6.2	-1.0	230° 14 kt
762 mb	2430 m	5.7	-1.9	235° 14 kt
752 mb	2538 m	5.0	-2.8	225° 14 kt
732 mb	2758 m	3.2	-3.8	—
720 mb	2891 m	2.8	-5.2	—
700 mb	3119 m	2.2	-10.8	295° 16 kt
687 mb	3270 m	1.2	-13.0	305° 14 kt
657 mb	3628 m	-1.3	-18.3	—
644 mb	3787 m	-2.3	-18.3	—
611 mb	4204 m	-4.0	-10.9	285° 32 kt
596 mb	4400 m	-4.7	-13.3	280° 35 kt
579 mb	4628 m	-5.9	-16.4	285° 33 kt
554 mb	4972 m	-8.5	-18.3	285° 38 kt
542 mb	5142 m	-9.9	-18.9	—
532 mb	5286 m	-10.8	-19.3	285° 43 kt
510 mb	5609 m	-13.5	-21.5	285° 50 kt
500 mb	5760 m	-14.7	-22.7	280° 48 kt
489 mb	5927 m	-15.9	-25.1	285° 49 kt
461 mb	6369 m	-18.7	-31.7	—
436 mb	6781 m	-21.6	-34.6	280° 51 kt
423 mb	7003 m	-23.2	-35.6	280° 59 kt
410 mb	7231 m	-24.8	-36.3	280° 62 kt
400 mb	7410 m	-26.1	-37.1	280° 62 kt
379 mb	7797 m	-29.1	-40.1	—
359 mb	8178 m	-32.2	-42.0	275° 63 kt
337 mb	8618 m	-35.7	-43.4	275° 63 kt
327 mb	8827 m	-37.4	-44.1	270° 65 kt
316 mb	9065 m	-39.4	-44.8	275° 68 kt
305 mb	9308 m	-41.1	-47.1	—
300 mb	9420 m	-41.9	-46.9	280° 70 kt
280 mb	9884 m	-45.3	-50.3	280° 76 kt
269 mb	10150 m	-47.5	-52.5	—
259 mb	10399 m	-49.3	-54.3	—
250 mb	10630 m	-51.3	-56.2	275° 77 kt
237 mb	10973 m	-53.9	-58.9	275° 76 kt
221 mb	11417 m	-56.7	-61.7	275° 77 kt
206 mb	11856 m	-59.9	-64.6	275° 77 kt
200 mb	12040 m	-61.3	-65.8	275° 78 kt
187 mb	12453 m	-64.1	-68.6	275° 76 kt
176 mb	12823 m	-65.7	-70.3	—
156 mb	13552 m	-65.8	-71.7	270° 69 kt
150 mb	13790 m	-64.7	-71.7	275° 68 kt
140 mb	14213 m	-63.4	-71.4	280° 57 kt
127 mb	14810 m	-63.8	-73.4	265° 51 kt
117 mb	15308 m	-65.7	-76.7	275° 60 kt
107 mb	15851 m	-67.7	-80.3	270° 41 kt
100 mb	16260 m	-66.9	-80.9	280° 48 kt
90 mb	16897 m	-67.2	-82.7	280° 47 kt
77 mb	17848 m	-65.0	-84.0	240° 22 kt
67 mb	18699 m	-62.2	-84.2	285° 31 kt
46 mb	21002 m	-63.5	-91.1	235° 18 kt
36 mb	22518 m	-61.7	-90.5	305° 20 kt
26 mb	24529 m	-62.9	-90.9	305° 13 kt
16 mb	27520 m	-61.2	-90.2	265° 27 kt
7 mb	32730 m	-54.1	-84.1	265° 72 kt

Every station with a sounding (76)

SPC observed soundings checked 09:30Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Impacts

No supported U.S. monitoring area

Coastal alertsNo coastal alerts issued in this advisory Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Warnings in monitored areaNWS coverage unavailable here; not a global all-clear

Official forecast table

Forecast points

CPHC Advisory 15 · advisory 09:00Z · forecast cycle 06:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
06:00Z +0 h from forecast cycle	11.7°N, 163.3°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
09:00Z +3 h from forecast cycle	11.7°N, 163.9°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
18:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	11.5°N, 165.6°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
11 Nov 06:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	11.2°N, 167.7°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
11 Nov 18:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	11.1°N, 170.2°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
12 Nov 06:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	11.3°N, 173.3°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
12 Nov 18:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	11.8°N, 176.3°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
13 Nov 06:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	12.3°N, 179.4°W	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
14 Nov 06:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	13.1°N, 175.2°E	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
15 Nov 06:00Z +120 h from forecast cycle	13.5°N, 171.1°E	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)

Advisory history and records

Advisory history

Return to latest advisory

Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
CPHC Advisory 15 · 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d09d1ec3 · Selected
CPHC Unnumbered state · 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0abb013b
CPHC Advisory 14 · 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 6ab29e69
CPHC Unnumbered state · 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0bcec4c9
CPHC Advisory 13 · 9 Nov 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot f9ae50f7
CPHC Unnumbered state · 9 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7c8b78ee
CPHC Advisory 12 · 9 Nov 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0a3a81cd
CPHC Unnumbered state · 9 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 20477de4
CPHC Advisory 11 · 9 Nov 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 1dbe26fd
CPHC Unnumbered state · 9 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 5f4e816f
CPHC Advisory 10 · 9 Nov 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0bcae4ab
CPHC Unnumbered state · 9 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d9b6706d
CPHC Advisory 9 · 8 Nov 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 23b015f2
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7081a2c1
CPHC Advisory 8 · 8 Nov 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9cccd530
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 72fa3e5c
CPHC Advisory 7 · 8 Nov 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9d4bd068
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 34f11ed6
CPHC Advisory 6 · 8 Nov 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7b6af387
CPHC Unnumbered state · 8 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot feb3dd6a
CPHC Advisory 5 · 7 Nov 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 056a0eb5
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot e296178e
CPHC Advisory 4 · 7 Nov 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 8e23913e
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9ce314ee
CPHC Advisory 3 · 7 Nov 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot f167fe92
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot b161830f
CPHC Advisory 2 · 7 Nov 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 6eb780c9
CPHC Unnumbered state · 7 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot c16d8efc
CPHC Advisory 1 · 6 Nov 21:00Z	first	Snapshot 5be09be7

Monitoring geography

Area: None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 15
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: crosses no U.S. state
Hazards: —
Window: In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
Made by: CPHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 15 (09:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Wind speed probabilities

Chance of sustained wind of at least 34, 50 and 64 knots, by place
Place	34 kt	50 kt	64 kt
10n 170w	9%	—	—
10n 175w	4%	—	—

NHC’s chance of sustained wind of at least each speed at each place it lists, through 15 Nov 06:00Z; the places with the highest chance of 34 kt first. Issued 09:00Z. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s table.

NHC’s coastal watches and warnings

NHC has no coastal watch or warning in effect for this storm.

In NHC’s words, Advisory 15, issued 09:00Z. The areas NHC names, in the United States and abroad; for a place outside the United States its national service is the warning authority. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s advisory.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 15 (09:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. GOES-West at 27° from the storm's meridian.

Open the storm’s page

Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Tropical Storm Pena, CPHC Advisory 15

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 15 (09:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

Open the radar

Drawn live: if the radar fails, nothing older is shown in its place.

My places

Add a place

Saved places are read from this device after scripting starts.

Search for a place

Search stays in this browser. A town point is not an address; no address-level surge is calculated.

Details

CPHC Advisory 15 · 09:00Z

Center position: 11.7°N, 163.9°W
Minimum pressure: 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 40 mph (35 kt)
Movement: W at 14 mph (12 kt)
Since the advisory compared: Wind -15 kt · pressure +11 hPa
Compared with Best track · 8 Nov 00:00Z

Read official advisory (CPHC) ↗Official discussion ↗

Forecast cycle 06:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

Map layers

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

Public event region Aggregation interval Show density on map

Cached lightning observations have not loaded. An empty map is not zero lightning.

Coverage and interpretation

Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.

Cached lightning source details and text readings

Interactive layer controls load on this device. Published products remain available below.

Advisory comparison

Compare with

Show previous forecast as a dashed line

Solid: Advisory 15 · 09:00Z
Dashed: Best track · 8 Nov 00:00Z

Compare positions and intensity

Solid: CPHC Advisory 15 · 09:00Z
Dashed: CPHC Best track · 8 Nov 00:00Z. Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.

Current-state revision (two separate official issuances)
Field	Selected issuance	Comparison issuance	Change
Maximum sustained wind	40 mph (35 kt)	58 mph (50 kt)	-15 kt
Minimum pressure	1004 hPa	993 hPa	+11 hPa
Center position	11.7°N, 163.9°W	11.4°N, 154.1°W	Different observation times; not a forecast shift

Official forecast revisions at matching valid times
Valid time	Selected position / wind	Previous position / wind	Wind revision
06:00Z	11.7°N, 163.3°W 40 mph (35 kt)	11.5°N, 162.9°W 69 mph (60 kt)	-25 kt
18:00Z	11.5°N, 165.6°W 40 mph (35 kt)	11.8°N, 165.0°W 69 mph (60 kt)	-25 kt
11 Nov 18:00Z	11.1°N, 170.2°W 40 mph (35 kt)	12.7°N, 170.5°W 75 mph (65 kt)	-30 kt
12 Nov 18:00Z	11.8°N, 176.3°W 40 mph (35 kt)	14.5°N, 177.7°W 75 mph (65 kt)	-30 kt

None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 15. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.

Data coverage

NHC/CPHC track, coastal alerts, probabilities and wind timing retain separate coverage and issuance.

Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.

No supported U.S. NWS monitoring area for this advisory. This does not mean no warnings worldwide.

Sources

CPHC advisory, as published checked 09:30Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

Outside NWS coverageTropical Storm Pena

Check local warning authorities.

09:31Z