STORM MODEWeather tracking workspace

Tropical Storm Thirtyone

Tropical Storm 40 mph (35 kt) · 1004 hPa · WNW at 18 mph (16 kt)

JTWC Warning 4 · 7 Nov 00:00Z

Historical advisory selected · current imagery and impacts are not attached

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Flash-flood risk, Day 1

WPC’s Day 1 excessive rainfall outlook. Data: NOAA/WPC.

Impacts

Monitoring: MP

Coastal alertsNot retained with this historical record Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Warnings in monitored area0 severe/flash-flood warnings in the named monitoring area · source current

Official forecast table

Forecast points

JTWC Warning 4 · advisory 7 Nov 00:00Z · forecast cycle 7 Nov 00:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
7 Nov 12:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	20.3°N, 141.5°E	Tropical storm	52 mph (45 kt)
8 Nov 00:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	21.3°N, 138.7°E	Tropical storm	63 mph (55 kt)
8 Nov 12:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	22.3°N, 136.2°E	Typhoon	81 mph (70 kt)
9 Nov 00:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	23.1°N, 135.0°E	Typhoon	98 mph (85 kt)
9 Nov 12:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	23.8°N, 135.1°E	Typhoon	109 mph (95 kt)
00:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	24.4°N, 136.8°E	Typhoon	104 mph (90 kt)
11 Nov 00:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	26.6°N, 143.4°E	Typhoon	81 mph (70 kt)
12 Nov 00:00Z +120 h from forecast cycle	28.9°N, 150.7°E	Tropical storm	52 mph (45 kt)

Advisory history and records

Advisory history

Return to latest advisory

Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
JTWC Warning 18 · 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot b515c9cc
JTWC Warning 17 · 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 17571fa4
JTWC Warning 16 · 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 5d7e3d7e
JTWC Warning 15 · 9 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot c752b70f
JTWC Warning 14 · 9 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 311990a5
JTWC Warning 13 · 9 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 07c0ce17
JTWC Warning 12 · 9 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 5bfaa1fd
JTWC Warning 11 · 8 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 2246b2a9
JTWC Warning 10 · 8 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d2af0300
JTWC Warning 9 · 8 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d9150cf8
JTWC Warning 8 · 8 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 70a99d6f
JTWC Warning 7 · 7 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 8017732a
JTWC Warning 6 · 7 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 1d3d7ebb
JTWC Warning 5 · 7 Nov 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 70f8e842
JTWC Warning 4 · 7 Nov 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot f9baa0bb · Selected
JTWC Warning 3 · 6 Nov 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot dd0679d9
JTWC Warning 2 · 6 Nov 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 6bf2dbf6
JTWC Warning 1 · 6 Nov 06:00Z	first	Snapshot 858bb03c

Monitoring geography

Area: U.S. territories JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of, Warning 4: Northern Mariana Islands (NWS states: MP)
JTWC issues no cone and no coastal segments, so the area is the territories its track reaches.
Hazards: Tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood, river flood, areal flood, coastal flood, tropical and other warnings, watches and advisories, and the forecasts for them
Window: In force now, with this warning’s forecast
Made by: JTWC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new warning. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

Map

This map draws the contiguous United States, and Northern Mariana Islands is beyond it. What is in force there is listed under “In force in this area”.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 4 (00:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 4 (00:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on the satellite, loaded by your browser.

Open the storm’s page

Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Tropical Storm Thirtyone, JTWC Warning 4

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 4 (00:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

SPC Day 1 outlook

General Thunderstorms Risk
Marginal Risk

SPC’s Day 1 categorical outlook, valid 16:30Z to 11 Nov 12:00Z, issued 16:19Z. SPC’s categories, as drawn. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Watches

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watch in force in this area.

SPC’s watches, by number, matched by the counties they list. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Mesoscale discussions

No mesoscale discussion reaches this area.

SPC’s mesoscale discussions whose outline reaches the area. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Storm ingredients

SPC’s hourly mesoanalysis, observed soundings and model guidance for the area, on the Analysis tab with its own clocks.

Open the Analysis tab

Drawn by the Analysis tab’s own renderer. Data: NOAA/SPC, NOAA/NCEP.

River gauges in flood

No river, coastal or lake gauge in this area is in flood, observed or forecast.

NWS’s gauges at flood stage or above in the area, worst first, each with its forecast hydrograph on Rain & rivers. Data: NOAA/NWPS.

Rain expected and rain that fell

WPC’s rain forecast and MRMS’s radar estimate of the rain that fell, on the Briefing’s map for the area.

Open Rain & rivers

Data: NOAA/WPC, NOAA/NSSL MRMS.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

Open the radar

Drawn live: if the radar fails, nothing older is shown in its place.

JTWC forecast for Tropical Storm Thirtyone, Warning 4; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Warning 4

Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.

ⓘ About this map

JTWC does not publish an NHC cone.

Basemap

MaverickWX map · Data: JTWC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

Recorded weather · gaps are marked. Coverage begins with recording activation.

Live sources keep independent clocks.

Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

Current GLM density, velocity and specialist layers are hidden during replay. Snow uses retained footprint metadata with unverified pixel time. Forecast uses one pinned issuance/run and exact valid time.

No observed replay frame displayed.

Open the complete replay reader (works without scripting or WebGL)

Choose Forecast for a pinned issuance and valid time.

My places

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Search stays in this browser. A town point is not an address; no address-level surge is calculated.

Details

JTWC Warning 4 · 7 Nov 00:00Z

Center position: 19.0°N, 144.2°E
Minimum pressure: 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 40 mph (35 kt)
Movement: WNW at 18 mph (16 kt)
Since the advisory compared: Wind +5 kt · pressure -1 hPa
Compared with Warning 3 · 6 Nov 18:00Z

Read official warning (JTWC) ↗

Forecast cycle 7 Nov 00:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

Map layers

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

Public event region Aggregation interval Show density on map

Cached lightning observations have not loaded. An empty map is not zero lightning.

Coverage and interpretation

Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.

Cached lightning source details and text readings

Interactive layer controls load on this device. Published products remain available below.

Advisory comparison

Show previous forecast as a dashed line

Solid: Warning 4 · 7 Nov 00:00Z
Dashed: Warning 3 · 6 Nov 18:00Z

Compare positions and intensity

Solid: JTWC Warning 4 · 7 Nov 00:00Z
Dashed: JTWC Warning 3 · 6 Nov 18:00Z. Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.

Current-state revision (two separate official issuances)
Field	Selected issuance	Comparison issuance	Change
Maximum sustained wind	40 mph (35 kt)	35 mph (30 kt)	+5 kt
Minimum pressure	1004 hPa	1005 hPa	-1 hPa
Center position	19.0°N, 144.2°E	18.4°N, 145.8°E	Different observation times; not a forecast shift

Forecast comparison unavailable: these records have no matching forecast valid times. No interpolation or six-hour step is assumed.

What changed, last 60 minutes

Nothing has changed in the last 60 minutes.

Alerts in this area

No warning, watch or advisory for these hazards is in force in this area.

NWS’s alerts checked 17:44Z: a successful check, so this is none in force, not “can’t tell”.

U.S. territories JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of, Warning 4: Northern Mariana Islands. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone and are not part of the historical advisory.

Data coverage

JTWC has no NHC cone, NHC wind probabilities or NHC civil coastal warnings. Local national services remain the warning authorities.

Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.

Sources

JTWC warning, as published checked 17:43Z
NWS warnings and SPC watches checked 17:44Z
NWS watches and advisories checked 17:44Z
SPC mesoscale discussions checked 17:44Z
SPC Day 1 outlook checked 17:40Z
WPC excessive rainfall checked 17:40Z
NWPS river gauges checked 17:35Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

0AlertsTropical Storm Thirtyone

No alerts in its area · 17:44Z

17:44Z