Weather Center: New Jersey

Current alerts

1 coastal flood warning touches New Jersey. 1 coastal flood warning (touching New Jersey)

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NWS alerts checked 12:08Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 05:10Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 06:57Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 08:28Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 12:08Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 12:05Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook checked 12:05Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 08:00Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 08:00Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 12:08Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 12:05Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

SPC Day 2 categorical outlook, Saturday 14 Nov

Source: SPC

Forecast: SPC’s scale

General Thunderstorms not severe

View scale

General Thunderstorms not severe
1 · Marginal Risk (not outlined)
2 · Slight Risk (not outlined)
3 · Enhanced Risk (not outlined)
4 · Moderate Risk (not outlined)
5 · High Risk (not outlined)

SPC Day 2 categorical outlook, valid 14 Nov 12:00Z to 15 Nov 12:00Z, issued 06:57Z · Data: NOAA/SPC.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 2 categorical outlook: General Thunderstorms

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Saturday briefing for New Jersey

Highest anywhere in New Jersey: no risk area

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 14 Nov 12:00Z to 15 Nov 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.
Prepare: No additional severe-weather preparation is indicated by this outlook.

Official discussion

SPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not New Jersey alone.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 06:59Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS02 KWNS 130659
SWODY2
SPC AC 130657

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. Saturday and
Saturday night.

...Southern Plains...
A mid-level trough over the western US is forecast to deamplify, as
the primary shortwave continues southeastward across the southern
Rockies/Plains. To the west, another trough will deepen across the
Pacific coast while surface high pressure with cool and relatively
dry conditions dominates the East. As the upper trough migrates
across the Rockies and into the Plains Saturday/Saturday night,
strong mid-level ascent will deepen a lee cyclone from southeastern
CO into NM and West TX. Southerly flow will increase and modest
surface moisture return (40s to near 50 F dewpoints) will occur
beneath cooling mid-level temperatures over the southern High
Plains. Weak destabilization is expected with model profiles showing
perhaps up to 500 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE available.

Ascent from the upper trough and increasing low-level warm air
advection will likely support scattered thunderstorms from the Four
Corners to OK/TX from Saturday afternoon/evening. A 30-40 kt
southerly low-level jet over parts of western OK/TX may also aide in
additional convection overnight. Some potential for a few stronger
storms may exist if sufficient buoyancy and around 30-40 kts of
effective shear develop. Likely elevated, marginally severe hail
would be the primary hazard with any stronger storms able to
persist. However the scant destabilization casts significant
uncertainty on severe potential, as such, probabilities will be
withheld for now. 

Elsewhere, occasional lightning flashes will be possible along the
Pacific Northwest coast ahead of the aforementioned upper trough.
Additional storms are also possible along the lower TX Gulf coast
within the southerly return flow and warm advection regime. Very
weak buoyancy is expected and coverage, as well as any severe
potential will remain low in both locales.

..Lyons.. 11/13/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Coming days · New Jersey

2026-11-13Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-11-14Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-11-15Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

WPC outlines no excessive rainfall area at this scope. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

River flooding

8 gauges in flood in New Jersey, observed or forecast.

Moderate flooding Barnegat Bay at Barnegat Light (IN MLLW), NJ (forecast)
Minor flooding New Jersey Atlantic Coast at Atlantic City (ocean front) (IN MLLW), NJ (forecast)
Minor flooding Maurice River at Bivalve (IN MLLW), NJ (forecast)

And five more gauges in flood.

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 12 Nov – 12Z 13 Nov

0 tornado · 4 wind · 19 hail in New Jersey · largest hail 1.75 in

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in New Jersey. National context: one other mesoscale discussion is in force outside New Jersey. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in New Jersey

1 warning touching New Jersey

1 warning touches New Jersey, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 12:08Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 11:09Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 1

Coastal flood Ocean; Coastal Ocean until 20:00Z Track: Coastal Flood Warning, Ocean; Coastal Ocean

All 1 warning touching New Jersey, with their full text, in the Live tracker

33 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track New Jersey live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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