Weather Center

Current alerts

Flash flood warnings in Texas. Nineteen warnings are in effect in seven states. 4 flash flood warnings 1 high wind warning 8 river flood warnings 4 areal flood warnings 2 high surf warnings 7 states (distinct warnings nationwide)

Open live tracker

NWS alerts checked 18:05Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 16:14Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16:39Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 08:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 18:05Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 18:05Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 15:58Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 08:10Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook checked 18:05Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / WPC selected forecast: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 18:05Z.

WPC selected forecast: Feed current; checked 18:05Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Sunday 8 Nov

Source: WPC

Forecast: WPC’s scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight highest

View scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight
3 · Moderate (not outlined)
4 · High (not outlined)

In force now

Flash Flood Warning 4
High Wind Warning 1
Flood Warning 12
High Surf Warning 2

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 16:00Z to 9 Nov 12:00Z, issued 15:58Z · Data: NOAA/WPC. Warnings and watches are as of 18:05Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: Marginal and Slight
Flash Flood Warning: Nueces County, TX, until 18:45Z
Flash Flood Warning: Cameron County, TX, until 19:15Z
Flash Flood Warning: Duval, Jim Wells and Kleberg counties, TX, until 19:15Z
Flash Flood Warning: Kleberg County, TX, until 19:30Z
High Wind Warning: East Glacier Park Region; Northern High Plains; Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera; Southern High Plains; Eastern Toole and Liberty; Hill County; Northern Blaine County; Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton; Western and Central Chouteau County; Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine; Cascade County below 5000ft; Judith Basin County and Judith Gap, until 9 Nov 03:00Z
Flood Warning: DeSoto County, FL, until 9 Nov 02:00Z
Flood Warning: Lake and Volusia counties, FL, until 9 Nov 16:30Z
Flood Warning: Lake and Volusia counties, FL, until 9 Nov 16:30Z
Flood Warning: Brevard County, FL, until 9 Nov 16:30Z
Flood Warning: Seminole County, FL, until 9 Nov 16:30Z
Flood Warning: Seminole County, FL, until 9 Nov 16:45Z
Flood Warning: Maricopa County, AZ, until 9 Nov 18:00Z
Flood Warning: Maricopa County, AZ, until 9 Nov 18:00Z
Flood Warning: Maricopa County, AZ, until 9 Nov 18:00Z
Flood Warning: Maricopa County, AZ, until 9 Nov 18:00Z
Flood Warning: Benton and Iowa counties, IA, until 10 Nov 01:00Z
Flood Warning: Nueces County, TX, until 12 Nov 00:00Z
High Surf Warning: Clatsop County Coast; Tillamook County Coast; South Washington Coast, until 9 Nov 06:00Z
High Surf Warning: Northern Washington Coast; Grays Harbor County Coast, until 9 Nov 06:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Sunday briefing

National maximum: Slight (2 of 4)

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

WPC: “Scattered flash floods possible.” WPC’s definitions

Where

The slight area touches Texas; it covers parts of that state, not all of it.

When

Timing, approximate: WPC’s summary: “..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS...”

Outlook valid 16:00Z to 9 Nov 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive.

Main hazards

Flash flooding: Slight, at least a 15% chance within 40 km (25 mi) of a point. Scattered flash floods possible.

Prepare

Know how your community sends warnings. NWS
There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. … When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. NWS
Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown! NWS

In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

What changed

Marginal area expanded by about a fifth.

How this was compared

This issuance: 15:58Z. Earlier issuance: 08:10Z. The same product, WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, for the same day, ending 9 Nov 12:00Z; an outlook for another day is never compared with this one. WPC dates this day’s outlook from when each is issued, so this one runs from 16:00Z and the earlier one from 12:00Z. The whole outlook, measured in the map’s equal-area projection: an area is said to have grown or shrunk when it changes by a tenth and by 5,000 km², and to have moved when its centre moves 100 km.

Official discussion

WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, Day 1, issued 16:05Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS...

...16Z Update...

The latest runs of the HRRR seem to have the best handle on the
ongoing mesoscale setup across South Texas, depicting a persistent,
convergent line of convection from near Brownsville northward to
near Corpus Christi and points westward towards Duval county.
Subsidence west of this line has allowed precipitation to mostly
diminish, and models indicate any rainfall that returns should be
much less problematic. In coordination with WFO BRO, decided to
trim most of the SW portion of their CWA out of the existing SLGT
risk and keep it confined closer to the coast. North of BRO's CWA,
the concern is for another round of convective development later
this evening and overnight to bring more heavy rain to an area that
has already received more than 2" (with some locations from east
of Laredo eastward to near Kingsville having received over 5").
Given those concerns, the SLGT (which is considered to be an
"enhanced" SLGT) remains in place with only minor adjustments to
account for the latest observational trends and model guidance.

Miller

...Previous Discussion...

Current UA analysis and WV satellite presentation depict a deep,
closed upper reflection positioned over northern MX with a
prevailing southwest flow aloft encompassing the Southern Plains of
TX. A modest diffluent signature within the associated height
fields indicate a persistent ascent pattern between the Big Bend
down into the lower Rio Grande Valley (RGV) leading to copious
waves of showers and thunderstorms positioned along the RGV,
extending northeast into the northeastern part of the state. Recent
radar trends indicate a larger areal extent of convection
positioned along the immediate RGV as the coupling of large scale
ascent from our trough/ULL over MX interacts with a budding 30-40kt
LLJ centered basically on top of the RGV itself. This setup is
going according to plan with guidance and the current analysis in-
line with the general synoptic evolution and the precipitation
distribution across the state. Expectation is for heavy rainfall to
continue with a conglomeration of convection centered over south-
central TX in the vicinity of a strengthening surface trough
positioned over the interior portions of South Texas, mainly
bisecting the areas between Bexar county down to Cameron at the
southern tip of the state.

Assessment of the hi-res CAMs indicate a multi-wave scenario with
one round of heavy rainfall in the early portion of the forecast
transitioning to a complex of convection centered over the eastern
sections of Webb county over towards Corpus Christi by the
afternoon. Latest hi-res ensemble outputs note a solid 2-4",
locally higher occurring during the afternoon and early evening
hours before we see some re-firing of the convection over Deep
South TX with the re- development of the nocturnal LLJ tonight into
early Monday. REFS blended mean QPF is fairly robust with a
widespread 3-6" with as much as 8" occurring during the full period
with rates generally capped between 1-2"/hr at peak intensity as
MUCAPE will remain relatively low despite the modest theta_E
presence. REFS neighborhood probabilities for >3" remain elevated
with a large area of 60-90% probs centered over much of South TX,
mainly south of I-10 with the highest threat over the area
encompassed by Webb county over towards Corpus Christi. This area,
despite fairly high FFG thresholds, will still have a better than
normal opportunity for flash flooding due to extended priming and
longevity of the convective pattern overhead. Rainfall rates
coupled with the longstanding expectation of moderate to heavy rain
will boost the threat as we move forward in the D1 leading to the
best chances occurring in the late-afternoon and evening time frame
today, carrying into early Monday morning.

The previous SLGT and enhanced SLGT forecast was relatively
unchanged from the last update as guidance remains in solid
agreement on the convective details and heavy precipitation
positioning. A targeted upgrade is possible pending the evolution
and observed trends in the rainfall accumulations and relevant
flood obs that could occur. This would likely be proposed in future
updates, but current indications signal a continuation of the SLGT
risk with enhanced wording for those above locations.

Kleebauer

WPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

The chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 40 km (25 miles) of a point during the valid period, as WPC defines its categories. Marginal is at least 5%, Slight 15%, Moderate 40% and High 70%. WPC’s categories are separate from SPC’s severe-storm categories, and an outlook category is not a warning: a Flash Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent. WPC’s definitions.

Coming days · National

2026-11-08Severe storms: Marginal (1 of 5)Flash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)2026-11-09Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-11-10Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Severe storms

Marginal risk (1 of 5) at its highest nationally. SPC’s convective outlook, on its own scale.

View severe outlook

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 8 Nov – 12Z 9 Nov

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings nationwide

19 warnings in 7 states

19 distinct warnings in effect. The Live tracker lists every one with its full text; the most urgent are here too.

NWS alerts checked 18:05Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 17:06Z: no change in the warnings.

Storms 0

None in effect.

Flooding 16

Other weather 3

Other 3

Most warnings by state

Every warning, most urgent first, in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.