Weather Center: Washington

Current alerts

2 high surf warnings touch Washington. 2 high surf warnings (touching Washington)

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NWS alerts checked 18:27Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 16:14Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16:39Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 08:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 18:27Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 18:25Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 15:58Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 08:10Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook checked 18:25Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / WPC selected forecast: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 18:27Z.

WPC selected forecast: Feed current; checked 18:25Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Sunday 8 Nov

Source: WPC

Forecast: WPC’s scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight

View scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight
3 · Moderate (not outlined)
4 · High (not outlined)

In force now

High Surf Warning 2

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 16:00Z to 9 Nov 12:00Z, issued 15:58Z · Data: NOAA/WPC. Warnings and watches are as of 18:27Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: Marginal and Slight
High Surf Warning: Central Coast of Oregon; Clatsop County Coast; Tillamook County Coast; South Washington Coast, until 9 Nov 06:00Z
High Surf Warning: Northern Washington Coast; Grays Harbor County Coast, until 9 Nov 06:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Sunday briefing for Washington

Highest anywhere in Washington: no risk area

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When

Outlook valid 16:00Z to 9 Nov 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive.

Prepare

A warning is in force here: follow its instructions in Current alerts first.

There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. … When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. NWS

In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

Rain and rivers

Expected rain: 0.75 in or more at its highest in Washington, in WPC’s forecast for the 24 hours 9 Nov 00:00Z to 10 Nov 00:00Z. An amount for the area its contour covers, not a total for any one street.
Rain that fell: 3 to 4 in at its highest in Washington, in the 24 hours to 18:00Z, by MRMS’s radar estimate over a grid about 5 km across: a measurement of the past, not corrected to rain gauges.
Rivers: no river gauge in Washington is in flood or forecast to flood, by NWS’s lists read 18:25Z. Gauges are on larger rivers, not every creek: this is not a sign that nothing can flood.

Three sources, each its own window. None is a chance of flash flooding, which is WPC’s outlook above; a flash flood is a warning’s. Gauges in the Live tracker

Official discussion

WPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not Washington alone.

WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, Day 1, issued 16:05Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS...

...16Z Update...

The latest runs of the HRRR seem to have the best handle on the
ongoing mesoscale setup across South Texas, depicting a persistent,
convergent line of convection from near Brownsville northward to
near Corpus Christi and points westward towards Duval county.
Subsidence west of this line has allowed precipitation to mostly
diminish, and models indicate any rainfall that returns should be
much less problematic. In coordination with WFO BRO, decided to
trim most of the SW portion of their CWA out of the existing SLGT
risk and keep it confined closer to the coast. North of BRO's CWA,
the concern is for another round of convective development later
this evening and overnight to bring more heavy rain to an area that
has already received more than 2" (with some locations from east
of Laredo eastward to near Kingsville having received over 5").
Given those concerns, the SLGT (which is considered to be an
"enhanced" SLGT) remains in place with only minor adjustments to
account for the latest observational trends and model guidance.

Miller

...Previous Discussion...

Current UA analysis and WV satellite presentation depict a deep,
closed upper reflection positioned over northern MX with a
prevailing southwest flow aloft encompassing the Southern Plains of
TX. A modest diffluent signature within the associated height
fields indicate a persistent ascent pattern between the Big Bend
down into the lower Rio Grande Valley (RGV) leading to copious
waves of showers and thunderstorms positioned along the RGV,
extending northeast into the northeastern part of the state. Recent
radar trends indicate a larger areal extent of convection
positioned along the immediate RGV as the coupling of large scale
ascent from our trough/ULL over MX interacts with a budding 30-40kt
LLJ centered basically on top of the RGV itself. This setup is
going according to plan with guidance and the current analysis in-
line with the general synoptic evolution and the precipitation
distribution across the state. Expectation is for heavy rainfall to
continue with a conglomeration of convection centered over south-
central TX in the vicinity of a strengthening surface trough
positioned over the interior portions of South Texas, mainly
bisecting the areas between Bexar county down to Cameron at the
southern tip of the state.

Assessment of the hi-res CAMs indicate a multi-wave scenario with
one round of heavy rainfall in the early portion of the forecast
transitioning to a complex of convection centered over the eastern
sections of Webb county over towards Corpus Christi by the
afternoon. Latest hi-res ensemble outputs note a solid 2-4",
locally higher occurring during the afternoon and early evening
hours before we see some re-firing of the convection over Deep
South TX with the re- development of the nocturnal LLJ tonight into
early Monday. REFS blended mean QPF is fairly robust with a
widespread 3-6" with as much as 8" occurring during the full period
with rates generally capped between 1-2"/hr at peak intensity as
MUCAPE will remain relatively low despite the modest theta_E
presence. REFS neighborhood probabilities for >3" remain elevated
with a large area of 60-90% probs centered over much of South TX,
mainly south of I-10 with the highest threat over the area
encompassed by Webb county over towards Corpus Christi. This area,
despite fairly high FFG thresholds, will still have a better than
normal opportunity for flash flooding due to extended priming and
longevity of the convective pattern overhead. Rainfall rates
coupled with the longstanding expectation of moderate to heavy rain
will boost the threat as we move forward in the D1 leading to the
best chances occurring in the late-afternoon and evening time frame
today, carrying into early Monday morning.

The previous SLGT and enhanced SLGT forecast was relatively
unchanged from the last update as guidance remains in solid
agreement on the convective details and heavy precipitation
positioning. A targeted upgrade is possible pending the evolution
and observed trends in the rainfall accumulations and relevant
flood obs that could occur. This would likely be proposed in future
updates, but current indications signal a continuation of the SLGT
risk with enhanced wording for those above locations.

Kleebauer

WPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

The chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 40 km (25 miles) of a point during the valid period, as WPC defines its categories. Marginal is at least 5%, Slight 15%, Moderate 40% and High 70%. WPC’s categories are separate from SPC’s severe-storm categories, and an outlook category is not a warning: a Flash Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent. WPC’s definitions.

Coming days · Washington

2026-11-08Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-11-09Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-11-10Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Severe storms

Marginal risk (1 of 5) at its highest nationally. SPC’s convective outlook, on its own scale.

View severe outlook

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 8 Nov – 12Z 9 Nov

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Washington

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Washington. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Washington

2 warnings touching Washington

2 warnings touch Washington, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 18:27Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 17:29Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 2

High surf Central Coast of Oregon; Clatsop County Coast; Tillamook County Coast; South Washington Coast until 9 Nov 06:00Z crosses Oregon and Washington Track: High Surf Warning, Central Coast of Oregon; Clatsop County Coast; Tillamook County Coast; South Washington Coast
High surf Northern Washington Coast; Grays Harbor County Coast until 9 Nov 06:00Z Track: High Surf Warning, Northern Washington Coast; Grays Harbor County Coast

All 2 warnings touching Washington, with their full text, in the Live tracker

18 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track Washington live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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