Weather Center: North Dakota

NWS warnings: current · no activity

NWS warnings: Current · no activity; checked 18:40Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 18:40Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

SPC Day 1 tornado probability, Sunday 8 Nov

Source: SPC

Forecast: SPC’s scale

2% tornado

Each percentage is SPC’s chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point during the period, not the chance at an exact address.

SPC Day 1 tornado probability, valid 16:30Z to 9 Nov 12:00Z, issued 16:14Z · Data: NOAA/SPC. Warnings and watches are as of 18:40Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 1 tornado probability: 2% tornado

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Sunday briefing for North Dakota

Highest anywhere in North Dakota: no risk area

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 16:30Z to 9 Nov 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive.
Prepare: No additional severe-weather preparation is indicated by this outlook.

Official discussion

SPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not North Dakota alone.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 16:16Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS01 KWNS 081616
SWODY1
SPC AC 081614

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG THE
MIDDLE-LOWER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of south Texas. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado
appear possible.

...Middle-lower TX coast today...
A midlevel low over northern Mexico will drift slowly eastward and
weaken through the period.  At the surface, a baroclinic zone along
the middle-lower TX coast will provide a focus for thunderstorms
rooted at the surface, where boundary-layer dewpoints will remain
near 70 F.  Per the 12z observed soundings/VWPs/model forecasts,
deep-layer vertical shear will remain sufficient for some embedded
rotating storms, with the relatively stronger low-level
shear/hodograph curvature expected along the north edge of the
surface-based buoyancy with a small MCV just south of CRP.  Poor
midlevel lapse rates will temper the overall severe threat, though
an isolated, weak tornado and/or localized wind damage will be
possible with embedded circulations today.

Otherwise, elevated thunderstorms will remain possible from the
Edwards Plateau into interior south TX in a moist environment with
ascent and weak buoyancy atop the cooler near-surface air mass.

...Pacific Northwest and the lower Great Lakes...
The potential for isolated lightning flashes with low-topped
convection will diminish across northwest WA by about midday as a
midlevel trough moves inland and height rises ensue.  A separate
midlevel trough will continue southeastward over the lower Great
Lakes by this evening into early tonight.  Cooling midlevel
temperatures and weak buoyancy aided by the relatively warm lakes
will support convection that could become sufficiently deep to
support charge separation and isolated lightning flashes.

..Thompson/Barnes.. 11/08/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Current alerts

No warning touches North Dakota.

Open live tracker

NWS alerts checked 18:40Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 16:14Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16:39Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 08:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 18:40Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 18:40Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 15:58Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 08:10Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook checked 18:40Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

Coming days · North Dakota

2026-11-08Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-11-09Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-11-10Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

WPC outlines no excessive rainfall area at this scope. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

River flooding

2 gauges in flood in North Dakota, observed or forecast.

Major flooding Devils Lake, ND (observed)
Major flooding Eastern Stump Lake at Lakota, ND (observed)

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 8 Nov – 12Z 9 Nov

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in North Dakota

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in North Dakota. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

Weather Center