Weather Center: Arizona

Current alerts

4 flood warnings touch Arizona. 4 areal flood warnings (touching Arizona)

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NWS alerts checked 18:51Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 16:14Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16:39Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 08:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 18:51Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 18:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 15:58Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 08:10Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook checked 18:50Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 18:51Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 18:50Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

This period does not carry the any severe view, so the overall risk is shown.

SPC Day 2 categorical outlook, Monday 9 Nov

Source: SPC

Now, not forecast: Current warnings as of 18:51Z are drawn over the outlook for Monday 9 Nov, the warnings hatched so the forecast shows through. They are in force now; the outlook is for its own period. Show the forecast alone

Forecast: SPC’s scale

General Thunderstorms not severe

View scale

General Thunderstorms not severe
1 · Marginal Risk (not outlined)
2 · Slight Risk (not outlined)
3 · Enhanced Risk (not outlined)
4 · Moderate Risk (not outlined)
5 · High Risk (not outlined)

In force now

Flood Warning 4

SPC Day 2 categorical outlook, valid 9 Nov 12:00Z to 10 Nov 12:00Z, issued 16:39Z · Data: NOAA/SPC. Warnings and watches are as of 18:51Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 2 categorical outlook: General Thunderstorms
Flood Warning: Maricopa County, AZ, until 9 Nov 18:00Z
Flood Warning: Maricopa County, AZ, until 9 Nov 18:00Z
Flood Warning: Maricopa County, AZ, until 9 Nov 18:00Z
Flood Warning: Maricopa County, AZ, until 9 Nov 18:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Monday briefing for Arizona

Highest anywhere in Arizona: no risk area

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 9 Nov 12:00Z to 10 Nov 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.
Prepare: No additional severe-weather preparation is indicated by this outlook.

Official discussion

SPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not Arizona alone.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 16:40Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS02 KWNS 081640
SWODY2
SPC AC 081639

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across
the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that a strong, initially zonal,
mid/upper jet across the mid-latitude Pacific will undergo
amplification Monday through Monday night.  As this occurs, split
downstream flow, across and inland of the Pacific coast, may trend
more confluent east of the Rockies through the Atlantic
Seaboard.  Within an evolving branch across the subtropical
latitudes, it appears that a remnant cyclonic mid-level circulation
will continue to become increasingly sheared across and
east-northeast of the Texas Big Bend vicinity.  Upstream, one or two
short wave perturbations emerging from the mid-latitude eastern
Pacific are also forecast to undergo considerable deformation, while
progressing inland within generally building larger-scale mid-level
ridging.

...Southern Texas...
Recent runs of the Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh
support previous other model output indicating that potential for
occasional scattered thunderstorm development will continue into
this period.  It appears that this will still be largely supported
by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection, downstream of the weakening mid-level perturbation into
Monday afternoon, before tending to diminish by Monday evening.

...Pacific Northwest...
REFS, and now GEFS, calibrated thunderstorm guidance continue to
indicate at least low probabilities for convection capable of
producing lightning across and inland of the Oregon coast into
Cascades by late Monday afternoon.  This would likely
accompany destabilization beneath an inland progressing thermal
trough, in the presence of strengthening and moistening low-level
onshore flow.  However, coldest mid-level temperatures (including
-18 to -22 C around 500 mb) overspreading the Pacific Northwest are
forecast to remain rather modest in magnitude, and it remains
unclear in forecast soundings the extent to which thermodynamic
profiles will become supportive of lightning discharge.  At this
point, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10 percent,
with any convection that becomes capable of producing lightning
brief in nature and rather sparse in coverage.

..Kerr.. 11/08/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Coming days · Arizona

2026-11-08Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-11-09Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-11-10Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

WPC outlines no excessive rainfall area at this scope. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

River flooding

1 gauge in flood in Arizona, observed or forecast.

Minor flooding Moenkopi Wash at Tuba city, AZ (observed)

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 8 Nov – 12Z 9 Nov

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Arizona

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Arizona. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Arizona

4 warnings touching Arizona

4 warnings touch Arizona, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 18:51Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 17:52Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 4

Flood Maricopa County, AZ until 9 Nov 18:00Z Track: Flood Warning, Maricopa County, AZ
Flood Maricopa County, AZ until 9 Nov 18:00Z Track: Flood Warning, Maricopa County, AZ
Flood Maricopa County, AZ until 9 Nov 18:00Z Track: Flood Warning, Maricopa County, AZ
Flood Maricopa County, AZ until 9 Nov 18:00Z Track: Flood Warning, Maricopa County, AZ

All 4 warnings touching Arizona, with their full text, in the Live tracker

17 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track Arizona live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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