Weather Center: New York

Current alerts

1 winter storm warning touches New York. 1 winter storm warning (touching New York)

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NWS alerts checked 12:08Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 05:10Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 06:57Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 08:28Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 12:08Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 12:05Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook checked 12:05Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 08:00Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 08:00Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 12:08Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 12:05Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

Day 3 carries one combined probability.

SPC Day 3 any severe probability, Sunday 15 Nov

Source: SPC

Now, not forecast: Current warnings as of 12:08Z are drawn over the outlook for Sunday 15 Nov, the warnings hatched so the forecast shows through. They are in force now; the outlook is for its own period. Show the forecast alone

Forecast: SPC’s scale

5% any severe

Each percentage is SPC’s chance of a severe storm within 25 miles of a point during the period, not the chance at an exact address.

In force now

Winter Storm Warning 1
Coastal Flood Warning outside New York

SPC Day 3 any severe probability, valid 15 Nov 12:00Z to 16 Nov 12:00Z, issued 08:28Z · Data: NOAA/SPC. Warnings and watches are as of 12:08Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 3 any severe probability: 5% any severe
Winter Storm Warning: Otsego, until 18:00Z
Outside New York, for context: Coastal Flood Warning: Ocean; Coastal Ocean, until 20:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Sunday briefing for New York

Highest anywhere in New York: no risk area

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 15 Nov 12:00Z to 16 Nov 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.
Prepare: No additional severe-weather preparation is indicated by this outlook.

Official discussion

SPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not New York alone.

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 08:29Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS03 KWNS 130829
SWODY3
SPC AC 130828

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central
and the south Texas to the Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough and mid-level jet will move from the southern
High Plains into central TX beneath a building ridge over the
Midwest Sunday. An associated surface low will aid southerly flow
drawing a modified Gulf air mass northward across south-central TX.
However, the expansive surface high to the northeast will likely
stall the northward advance of the more robust surface moisture
farther south. Elevated buoyancy and thunderstorms are likely across
the Red River Vicinity with additional thunderstorm development
possible farther south through Sunday and into early Monday.

...South-central TX to the Gulf Coast...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of
the period near the center of the upper trough and surface low
associated with low-level warm air advection. Multiple rounds of
showers and storms, in combination with the increasingly strong
northerly surface gradient, should gradually focus the effective
warm sector farther south into TX. Elevated buoyancy of a few
hundred J/kg may persist across the Red River vicinity through
Sunday afternoon, with low-end potential for sporadic hail with any
stronger elevated storms.

Farther south, more robust inland moisture return is expected with
mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints. As the upper trough
approaches, low-level warm air advection and diurnal destabilization
should support an increase in thunderstorm activity across parts of
south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast.
Gradually strengthening veering wind profiles (EBWD 30-40 kt) may
favor storm organization into clusters or transient supercells.
Damaging gusts, some hail and perhaps a brief tornado are possible
into early Monday.

..Lyons.. 11/13/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Coming days · New York

2026-11-13Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-11-14Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-11-15Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

WPC outlines no excessive rainfall area at this scope. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

River flooding

1 gauge in flood in New York, observed or forecast.

Minor flooding Fort Pond Bay at Montauk (IN MLLW), NY (forecast)

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 12 Nov – 12Z 13 Nov

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in New York

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in New York. National context: one other mesoscale discussion is in force outside New York. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in New York

1 warning touching New York

1 warning touches New York, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 12:08Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 11:09Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 1

Winter storm Otsego until 18:00Z Track: Winter Storm Warning, Otsego

All 1 warning touching New York, with their full text, in the Live tracker

33 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track New York live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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