Weather Center: Arkansas

Current alerts

2 freeze warnings touch Arkansas. 2 freeze warnings (touching Arkansas)

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NWS alerts checked 12:07Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 05:10Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 06:57Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 08:28Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 12:07Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 12:05Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook checked 12:05Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 08:00Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 08:00Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 12:07Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 12:05Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Potential too low: SPC expects too little severe weather to outline a 15% area. Predictability too low: the forecasts differ too much to place an area; severe storms are not ruled out. Neither means no hazardous weather.

Hazard & forecast product

Days 4–8 carry one product: SPC’s chance of any severe storm, outlined at 15% and 30%.

SPC Day 7 outlook, any severe, Thursday 19 Nov

Source: SPC

Now, not forecast: Current warnings as of 12:07Z are drawn over the outlook for Thursday 19 Nov, the warnings hatched so the forecast shows through. They are in force now; the outlook is for its own period. Show the forecast alone

Forecast: SPC’s scale

SPC Day 7 outlook, any severe: Predictability too low

In force now

Freeze Warning 2

SPC Day 7 outlook, any severe, valid 19 Nov 12:00Z to 20 Nov 12:00Z, issued 10:00Z · Data: NOAA/SPC. Warnings and watches are as of 12:07Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 7 outlook, any severe: Predictability too low
Freeze Warning: Marion; Baxter; Fulton; Sharp; Randolph; Stone; Izard; Independence; Lawrence; Cleburne; Boone County Except Southwest; Newton County Higher Elevations; Searcy County Lower Elevations; Southeast Van Buren County; Boone County Higher Elevations; Newton County Lower Elevations; Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations; Van Buren County Higher Elevations; Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Benton; Carroll; Washington; Madison; Washington; Nowata; Craig; Ottawa; Rogers; Mayes; Delaware; Cherokee; Adair; Western Osage; Northeast Osage, until 14:00Z
Outside Arkansas, for context: Freeze Warning: Marion; Lamar; Fayette; Winston; Walker; Blount; Etowah; Calhoun; Cherokee; Cleburne; Pickens; Tuscaloosa; Jefferson; Shelby; St. Clair; Talladega; Clay; Randolph; Sumter; Greene; Hale; Perry; Bibb; Chilton; Coosa; Tallapoosa; Chambers; Marengo; Dallas; Autauga; Lowndes; Elmore; Montgomery; Macon; Bullock; Lee; Russell; Pike; Barbour, until 14 Nov 14:00Z
Outside Arkansas, for context: Freeze Warning: Lauderdale; Colbert; Franklin; Lawrence; Limestone; Madison; Morgan; Marshall; Jackson; DeKalb; Cullman, until 14 Nov 14:00Z
Outside Arkansas, for context: Freeze Warning: Bolivar; Sunflower; Leflore; Grenada; Carroll; Montgomery; Webster; Clay; Lowndes; Choctaw; Oktibbeha; Washington; Humphreys; Holmes; Attala; Winston; Noxubee; Sharkey; Yazoo; Madison; Leake; Neshoba; Kemper; Hinds; Rankin; Scott; Newton; Lauderdale; Smith; Jasper; Clarke, until 14 Nov 14:00Z
Outside Arkansas, for context: Freeze Warning: Marion; Lamar; Fayette; Winston; Walker; Blount; Etowah; Calhoun; Cherokee; Cleburne; Pickens; Tuscaloosa; Jefferson; Shelby; St. Clair; Talladega; Clay; Randolph; Sumter; Greene; Hale; Perry; Bibb; Chilton; Coosa; Tallapoosa; Chambers; Marengo; Dallas; Autauga; Lowndes; Elmore; Montgomery; Macon; Bullock; Lee; Russell; Pike; Barbour, until 15 Nov 14:00Z
Outside Arkansas, for context: Freeze Warning: Lauderdale; Colbert; Franklin; Lawrence; Limestone; Madison; Morgan; Marshall; Jackson; DeKalb; Cullman, until 15 Nov 14:00Z
Outside Arkansas, for context: Freeze Warning: Bolivar; Sunflower; Leflore; Grenada; Carroll; Montgomery; Webster; Clay; Lowndes; Choctaw; Oktibbeha; Washington; Humphreys; Holmes; Attala; Winston; Noxubee; Sharkey; Yazoo; Madison; Leake; Neshoba; Kemper; Hinds; Rankin; Scott; Newton; Lauderdale; Smith; Jasper; Clarke, until 15 Nov 14:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Thursday planning outlook for Arkansas

SPC Days 4–8 · planning

Highest anywhere in Arkansas: Predictability too low

Predictability too low: the forecasts differ too much for SPC to place an area yet. Severe storms are not ruled out; they cannot be located this far ahead.

Where: No area is outlined anywhere for this day.
When: 19 Nov 12:00Z to 20 Nov 12:00Z: SPC’s Day 7, counted from its issuance at 10:00Z. No time of day is given.
Prepare: No preparation is indicated by this planning outlook. Check again as the day comes closer.

Official discussion

SPC’s discussion covers the whole country and all five days, not Arkansas alone.

SPC Day 4–8 Convective Outlook, issued 10:02Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS48 KWNS 131002
SWOD48
SPC AC 131000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The upper trough across the TX Gulf Coast is forecast to continue
eastward and weaken as ridging intensifies over the central US. The
strong surface response to the building ridge (1030-1035 mb) will
favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow over much of the CONUS.
Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the near-shore coastal
waters of the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend and into
early next week.

...Mid to late week...
Ensemble guidance eventually shows the upper ridge yielding to
increasingly strong western US troughing sometime mid to late week.
Model solutions vary, with AINWP guidance considerably stronger and
faster than physics-based ensembles with ejecting the deep upper
trough and surface low D5/Tues - D7/Thur. Regardless, it appears
likely that stronger southwesterly flow aloft will move eastward
from the Desert Southwest into the southern Rockies and eventually
the central US, with increasing thunderstorm chances mid to late
week next week. The prominent high pressure over the Midwest will
likely delay substantial moisture return, casting significant
uncertainty on any severe potential. Predictability remains low
through much of the forecast period.

..Lyons.. 11/13/2026

SPC’s Days 4–8 page

Forecast details

SPC’s Days 4–8 outlook outlines where it sees at least a 15% or a 30% chance of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point on each day. It has no categories and no hazard of its own. “Potential too low” means SPC expects too little severe weather to outline 15%; “Predictability too low” means the forecasts differ too much to place an area, and severe storms are not ruled out. A day further out is less certain than Days 1–3. SPC’s Days 4–8 page.

Coming days · Arkansas

2026-11-13Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-11-14Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-11-15Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

WPC outlines no excessive rainfall area at this scope. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 12 Nov – 12Z 13 Nov

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Arkansas

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Arkansas. National context: one other mesoscale discussion is in force outside Arkansas. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Arkansas

2 warnings touching Arkansas

2 warnings touch Arkansas, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 12:07Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 11:09Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 2

Freeze Marion; Baxter; Fulton; Sharp; Randolph; Stone; Izard; Independence; Lawrence; Cleburne; Boone County Except Southwest; Newton County Higher Elevations; Searcy County Lower Elevations; Southeast Van Buren County; Boone County Higher Elevations; Newton County Lower Elevations; Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations; Van Buren County Higher Elevations; Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations until 14:00Z Track: Freeze Warning, Marion; Baxter; Fulton; Sharp; Randolph; Stone; Izard; Independence; Lawrence; Cleburne; Boone County Except Southwest; Newton County Higher Elevations; Searcy County Lower Elevations; Southeast Van Buren County; Boone County Higher Elevations; Newton County Lower Elevations; Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations; Van Buren County Higher Elevations; Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations
Freeze Benton; Carroll; Washington; Madison; Washington; Nowata; Craig; Ottawa; Rogers; Mayes; Delaware; Cherokee; Adair; Western Osage; Northeast Osage until 14:00Z crosses Arkansas and Oklahoma Track: Freeze Warning, Benton; Carroll; Washington; Madison; Washington; Nowata; Craig; Ottawa; Rogers; Mayes; Delaware; Cherokee; Adair; Western Osage; Northeast Osage

All 2 warnings touching Arkansas, with their full text, in the Live tracker

32 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track Arkansas live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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